The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[semi_infinite]

I have no idea, thought welcomed.

[DewDiligence]

What should this board be called, IYO?

[semi_infinite]

Not sure if the title of this thread applies anymore as "affluence" is being replaced by "stupidity" at the executive branch that doesn't seem to understand the link between INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL and affluence. My last visit to the bay area included discussions about this very topic. It will take years if not decades just to rebuild leading edge programs and lost talent for fundamental research programs. LLM's ain't going save us.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02143-x

[DewDiligence]

DE settles “right-to-repair” complaint brought_by FTC:

https://apnews.com/article/john-deere-right-to-repair-agriculture-equipment-cb7514ffedb95c130a976af661f2bc02

This matter appeared to be settled back in 2023, but growers said they still couldn’t get access to DE’s proprietary software needed to fix malfunctions except by going to an authorized dealer.

[DewDiligence]

GOOG reported_an_all-time_record_for seaches/second during Argentina's miracle_comeback_vs Egypt in the World Cup round of 16:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/world-cup-drives-google-search-to-record-queries-per-second.html

I was watching live. It was a game for the ages.

[semi_infinite]

Waymo - nannying misbehaving teens..

https://www.mercurynews.com/2026/07/07/waymo-car-reports-drinking-teens/

[semi_infinite]

OT - Happy 250th. Welcome to the new America.

https://www.npr.org/2026/07/06/nx-s1-5883784/dhs-ice-critic-lawsuit-free-speech

[DewDiligence]

CLF—(+7%)—receives $400M GOES DoD order:

https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/cleveland-cliffs-awarded-400m-defense-logistics-agency-contract-thefly-news

[semi_infinite]

Robotaxis in SF Bay Area - Waymo has mostly switched to Zeeker minivan in SF city area since my last visit. I still see the older Jaguars in the suburbs but I see the minivans as the future workhorse. Tesla's cybercab is out testing with testers in the driving seat so there must be some steering override despite not having a steering wheel. Mobileye is out testing (I think it's them) because of Lidars jury-rigged to different makes of ICE vehicles while . Waymo clearly way ahead of everybody else in the US.

https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/28/waymos-newest-robotaxi-is-chinese-made-built-to-make-money-and-now-accepting-riders/

[semi_infinite]

Perhaps there is a conservation-of-market-capital law since SPCX makes it the magnificent eight.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/31224/magnificent-seven-shed-2-3-trillion-in-june-as-ai-spending-comes-under-closer-scrutiny-msft

[semi_infinite]

Pretty sure radiation hardening will be one of the first things Golden Dome contractors will be looking at and the military have been on it for as long as there have been satellites. IMO thermal shielding and heat shedding are engineering issues and some of it may do double duty as rediation shielding.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hardening

[Biowatch]

cooling, radiation hardening, energy requirements

Quantum computing may help with the volume of computing needed, and will alter the thermal aspect of the problem if it is feasible in outer space.

Quantum computing may be a reality in ten to twenty years. Who knows, Musk might be thinking about computing on Mars or in orbit around Mars, not just around the Earth.

Radiation shielding will be a major concern, as it is Earth’s magnetic field that protects us from the hard radiation in space and on the Martian surface. If you live on Mars, you will almost certainly live underground, as early sci-fi predicted, e.g., “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.”

[DewDiligence]

ABT is +3.5% as I'm typing. I presume that investors interpreted the USSC's Bayer decision today to signify a generally corporate-friendly stance by the Court, which increases probability that the USSC will limit punitive damages in ABT's NEC litigation—including the $400M of punitive damages awarded in a single Missouri case (#msg-177721919).

[DewDiligence]

WF boosts CAT target price $1050—>$1155 (LOL):

https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/caterpillar-price-target-raised-to-1155-from-1050-at-wells-fargo-thefly-news

[DewDiligence]

MSFT CEO’s AI spiel sounds like doubletalk—maybe I’m missing something:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/microsofts-satya-nadella-we-cant-let-ai-giants-eat-the-economy-b9d33b9f

[semi_infinite]

There is a lot of upside when you look at the ratio of the overhead mass vs compute mass. It will still be a big ratio if you can cut the mass by 80%. At this point, it will be trying to figure out what percentage of the overhead mass can be eliminated.

[n4807g]

thanks for your response; "Those are engineering issues and they are not barriers"....true. After your post a few days ago, I did more "googling" and most "experts", but not all. agree it is feasible. But.......and it's a big but, virtually all agree that even if the technical issues are solved, there's no assurance that the end result is economically advantageous. Virtually all those who believe there is a path don't see a working prototype for 5 years, and any volume of data satellites for 10-20 years. No one can predict the capex requirements to get to a working prototype. So yes, it is possible that the engineering issues can be solved, but it's far from certain there will ever be a workable data center in space. 10-20 years is an eternity in the field, who knows what AI data centers will look like?? Perhaps a data center today that fills a sizeable facility and consumes enormous amounts of power will be reduced to a much smaller footprint and consume significantly less power.

[semi_infinite]

Those are engineering issues and they are not barriers.

https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa/thermal-control/

[semi_infinite]

QS/HMC -

The work is now publicly acknowledged and now moved from HMC testing phase into a joint R&D phase. Six months of testing at Japanese labs and probably at an anal level. The Honda approach (see bottom link) seemed to follow TM's playbook when comparing the electrolyte manufacturing processes that were described. So replacing the electrolyte with QS ceramic separator signals the start of a diverging path for the two biggest automakers in Japan.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/18/3314229/0/en/quantumscape-announces-agreement-with-honda-on-solid-state-battery-technology.html
https://www.evinfrastructurenews.com/ev-battery/solid-state-battery-technology

[n4807g]

Could you elaborate.....thank yoi.

[semi_infinite]

IMO it's going to happen if those are the only issues becauste they aren't.

[n4807g]

AI data centers in space on Musk's timeline is fantastically unrealistic. The engineering issues, cooling, radiation hardening, energy requirements, launch availability, and regulatory issues push any working constellation decades away if ever. The continuing advancement in chip/system design sees upgrades in a 2-3 year cycle. Even if it were remotely feasible to send a data center to space what is a reasonable life span before the system is obsolete requiring a replacement satellite or satellites? From 2017 to today Nvidia has had 5 major upgrades to their systems. The Volta system of 2017 is obsolete and Ampere is at it's life cycle end.

[Rocky3]

It is very unlikely that I will hold the shares "long term." I plan to hold them 15 days and then decide whether to hold any longer. I might - just to follow it a little closer. My position is very small. I hope to participate in the other big IPOs if Schwab is involved. I think that IPOs are generally not attractive long-term holds (GOOG being one of the exceptions).

[SJEmmerich]

I got shares from E-Trade. Like 28% of my request but I didn't request all that many. I already flipped them

[BottomBounce]

$PLUG Hy2gen 275 MW mega-deal — One of the largest electrolyzer contracts in North America

[n4807g]

Do you intend to hold for the long term?

[Rocky3]

FWIW, I got 4.8% of the shares I requested through Schwab. Have to hold 15 days or else I am blocked from IPOs for 6 months.

[DewDiligence]

My view exactly. SPCX will be an entertainment vehicle as I will watch the fireworks from the sideline.

[n4807g]

SPCX....let the games begin. I wouldn't attempt to guess where the share price will be today, tomorrow, or a year from today, but I will say that all the predictions about the revenue stream is.....hogwash. This is a hype machine that makes TSLA look tame.

[DewDiligence]

CAT raises dividend for 32nd consecutive year—to annualized $6.52 (from $6.04):

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/caterpillar-inc-increases-dividend-302797237.html

Caterpillar expects to continue to return substantially all Machinery, Power & Energy (MP&E) free cash flow to shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases.

The above phrase means all corporate cash flow other than income from the finance subsidiary.

[DewDiligence]

Berobenatide—dosed monthly—appears_competitive_with_weekly Zepbound/Wegovy in efficacy/tolerability—see slide 7 at the link in #msg-177679183.

Berobenatide (f/k/a ‘3944) is the lead compound from PFE’s weight-loss pipeline acquired in the Metsera buyout (#msg-176942527).

[DewDiligence]

ABT dual glucose/ketone CGMs facilitate_early_detection_of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA):

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-abbott-data-show-many-people-with-diabetes-may-not-recognize-symptoms-of-diabetic-ketoacidosis-302793024.html

Findings from multiple Abbott studies shared at the American Diabetes Association's (ADA) June 2026 86th Scientific Sessions show sharp increases in DKA-related hospitalizations across all age groups nationwide. The data reinforces that while diabetes technology has advanced significantly, there are opportunities to better detect rising ketones before DKA develops.

… DKA develops in people with diabetes when the body does not have enough insulin and begins breaking down fat for energy, causing ketones to rise to dangerous levels in the blood. While traditionally associated with Type 1 diabetes, DKA is increasingly affecting people with Type 2 diabetes. The American Diabetes Association notes that high ketone levels can escalate to DKA within hours and, if left untreated, can lead to coma or death. Many people living with diabetes aren't familiar with DKA or its symptoms, despite clinical guidance recommending ketone testing during periods of elevated glucose, making it a challenge to detect early.

… Continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) play an essential role in helping people manage their diabetes by providing real-time glucose insights. However, they do not currently measure ketones and DKA can still develop even when glucose levels appear stable.

… As an alternative to existing ketone monitoring options, Abbott has developed dual glucose-ketone sensing technology, which combines continuous glucose and ketone monitoring in a single sensor designed to support both daily diabetes management and help to detect rising ketone levels for people living with diabetes.

Abbott announced CE Mark for the systems, called Libre Duo and Libre Duo 10 Day, in May 2026. The company has also filed a regulatory submission with the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA).

I posted selected excerpts, but this PR is worth reading in its entirety, IMO.

[DewDiligence]

CLF CFO sold $2.9M of_his $5.4M stockholding today at an average price of $13.41:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000090/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1780694795.xml

Celso still holds $2.5M of stock and a lot of options, but this kind of open-market sale by him is unprecedented, as far as I know.

The good news, such as it is, is that there cannot be bearish news pending, On the other hand, I doubt that Celso would unload almost $3M if something really bullish, such as a lucrative deal with POSCO, were coming soon.

[n4807g]

The good jobs report provides the perfect excuse to sell. Talk of a potential future rate increase have spooked investors, outweighing the AI capex commitment (at least for today that is). Every selloff in the last few years has been seen as a buying opportunity. I expect this trend will continue.

[DewDiligence]

GLP-1 drugs causing “return fatigue” for_retailers:

https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/americans-on-glp-1s-are-overwhelming-retailers-with-their-nonstop-returns-9c512caf

America’s apparel companies are fighting increasing returns. The problem is the soaring use of weight-loss drugs.

… Shoppers are increasingly buying multiple versions of the same garment, and then sending back those that don’t fit. They are also sizing down through exchanges, returning larger sizes in favor of smaller ones.

…Returns are among the biggest profit-killers for retailers, particularly online businesses. Shipping, labor and warehousing costs add up. And items sent back might be out of season, meaning retailers have to resell them at a discount.

… At peak weight loss, those taking GLP-1 medications can drop a clothing size every month. Jeans, bras and athleisure wear are often the first items replaced. Then come tops and dresses, as well as adjustments to rings, bracelets and shoe sizing. Retailers from Levi Strauss to Costco Wholesale and Walmart are working to understand the shift.

[semi_infinite]

CEO talked about their analog to AlphaGo approach to AI coding. We recently see some results from Mythos and that was a few months into approach. So he seems to saying that AI-Go is at singularity. Do you think the Chinese or the Russians will stop? I think it's a done deal no matter what he says. Perhaps that's the reason Thiel wants to watch from Argentina.

[12yearplan]

$ALM .. over 30% premium to the market as of now:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/stock-market/TSX/AII/stock-news/98680734/almonty-industries-prices-oversubscribed-us-700-mi

[FDA-agent-1]

In china, you are banned from critizing the stock market or even bad mouth certain companies in social media.
that is all you need to know what i'm talking about
the violation of freedom of speech.
either the jurors were misinformed what the charge of 'stock fraud' is .
what he did was not 'stock fraud' but the juror or layman were given the wrong definition
of what is 'stock fraud' CRIME

he was saying negative things about some companies and his opinion someone effected the stock for brief periods of time. and opinion is just that. whether the opinion is wrong or right doesn't matter. but somehow the jurors were told it is illlegal to bash companies and shorting a stock. shorting a stock is an 'opinion' no need to write it make a statement and his followers agree with him

what he did was not even securities fraud.

[Biowatch]

A short seller’s fraud conviction is spooking Wall Street
June 3, 2026

Short seller Andrew Left’s conviction this week on securities-fraud charges has shocked an influential niche of the stock market whose calling card is its ability to affect stock prices. Activist short sellers release reports on companies that they say are overvalued or hiding information from shareholders, then cash in on the selloffs their ideas sometimes induce.

But federal prosecutors argued that Left corrupted the business model by scheming to trade quickly around his statements on social media, where he had a huge following. He misled others by starting to exit a trade minutes or hours after saying he was betting against a stock, in effect doing the “opposite” of what others expected him to do, prosecutors said.

They didn’t stop there. Prosecutors also persuaded a jury to convict Left on charges related to long positions in stocks including Nvidia that he said others should buy but then quickly exited after their prices rose.

Wall Street is now wondering how much short sellers—and even the much larger group of investors who tout stocks as good buys—can say on social media, TV or in other public appearances without fear of legal scrutiny. Investors aren’t legally required to disclose their trades or future plans in minute detail, but some now wonder how long is sufficient to hold a position they have touted before they can start to close it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-short-seller-s-fraud-conviction-is-spooking-wall-street/ar-AA24Ng2k

[DewDiligence]

Addendum—I left out a paragraph in #msg-177673504:

APS said it is working on a way for large customers to develop their own power generation, but it can’t compromise reliability or affordability for others.

It would seem that the only plausible solution is for data centers to supply their own primary and backup power (cue CAT), and that this ought to be obvious by now.

I’m not sure I fully understand the “reliability” reference in the excerpt above.

[n4807g]

It's a serious problem that needs resolution. It seems reasonable to have a local power generation source built at or near where data centers are being built, I suppose regulations, and NIMBY turn what seems reasonable into a potentially complicated process. The issue of electric power generation, and who pays is only going to intensify. The future, robots, EV's, AI are all power intensive so I don't see the arguing letting up, or being resolved.

[DewDiligence]

Anthropic wants to slow AI development. Is this a good-faith effort for humanity… or a Machiavellian ploy to impede competitors?

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-urges-global-pause-in-ai-development-flags-self-improvement-risk-99cefb73

[n4807g]

The current thinking of winner take all in AI seems too pervasive

Yes..no doubt there will be a number of dominant providers. I believe GOOG will be dominant in both the hardware and software space. They certainly have the financial strength to build out their AI offerings, so I do believe they will be one of the winners.

[DewDiligence]

Outsized increases in electricity rates_to_support data centers may be the hottest issue in local politics—at least in Phoenix:

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/phoenix-is-a-data-center-meccaand-test-case-for-how-to-pay-for-ais-power-needs-c671056f

Arizona Public Service, the state’s largest utility, sits at the center of the [data-center backlash] firestorm. APS is proposing a 45% electricity-rate increase for “extra-large energy users,” primarily data centers, and a roughly 14.5% increase for residential customers.

Nearly everyone is unhappy.

Consumer advocates warn… [that]…if the AI boom fizzles or the energy consumption of data centers wanes… residents could be left paying off the infrastructure upgrades years from now.

“We’re making sure that they are paying their fair share,” said Ted Geisler, chief executive of APS and parent company Pinnacle West Capital. “These data centers require entire power plants to be built just for them or entire transmission lines. That’s why we’ve got to modernize the rate tariffs.”

… The debate is part of a national tug of war. Similar fights over how to pay for the grid build-out have erupted in Texas, North Carolina and other markets, where residential power customers face large increase proposals.

…Geisler, the APS chief, said higher rates are needed to cover what already has been spent for upgrades and repairs to the grid. Rising inflation, higher interest rates and supply-chain volatility have driven up project costs. Prices for some transformers have jumped 90% in recent years, Geisler added.

[semi_infinite]

QS - JB Straubel is shifting to more of an operational role from BOD. Some think it may have to do with data center push. IMO it has more to do with scaling for EVs as he was the one that came up with and implemented Nv gigafactory for Tesla (amongst other stuff). That's what he is good at.

DonutLabs - now undergoing criminal investigation for fraud.

[BottomBounce]

$PLUG 🔮 Future Growth Catalysts
The company is targeting EBITDA-positive operations in the near future.

Amazon and Walmart refresh cycles could drive major unit demand.

Data-center hydrogen backup power could become a massive market.

Electrolyzer demand from Europe and Canada is accelerating.

Hydrogen-powered grid services are emerging as a new revenue stream.

More FEED-stage projects are likely to convert to full contracts.

Hydrogen trucking and mobility markets remain largely untapped.

Hydrogen export markets in Europe and Asia are expanding.

U.S. hydrogen hub funding could provide major support.

A technical breakout could unlock significant upside.

[semi_infinite]

The current thinking of winner take all in AI seems too pervasive. IMO the application specific AI (agentic) will be on the same growth path as AI slop. Gemini keeps asking me how they are doing periodically and always give them a 3 out of 5 stars. It comes back and ask for details and it would take me too much time or not enough space in their tiny box to type out what could be better. When I can describe the problem in that tiny box will indicate a milestone. Google has the best path for scaling consumer AI. That is all and it not cleared to me they will extend that dominance to other domains while AGI is being strived for,

[DewDiligence]

(LOL)—Wells Fargo raises CLF price target $9—>$14.

[n4807g]

there’s little doubt the US power grid needs a lot of work

x10 !!

Putting power generators on site at AI server farms would be ideal. Can't imagine the upgrade requirements to provide power from a remote source...EK!!!!

[DewDiligence]

CLF—That’s old news but who knows when investors will decide to value something.

True, I posted about this upside for CLF in #msg-175834370.