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US Steel endgame is unclear:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-steel-stock-nippon-5df112b8
Investors appear confused, and no one knows exactly how the U.S. Steel drama will end.
…On Wednesday, Ancora, a Cleveland-based activist investor with about $10 billion in assets under management, held a conference call outlining its plan for the steel maker. Ancora nominated a majority slate of directors on Jan. 27, making a play for control of the company.
…Keeping track of things on the table: U.S. Steel could be sold to Nippon Steel, get an investment from Nippon Steel, be broken up into pieces, merge with Cleveland-Cliffs, or make a go of it as a standalone company investing in existing operations.
In NH I've just recently seen my 1st CT. Not something I'd be interested in.
I see a lot of Rivians in the SF Bay Area. A few in the neighborhood actually covered with mud after a weekend. They are putting in good off road use. The few CTs I see usually wrapped and I haven't seen one that's muddy or dirty. Really is a poiintless car for making impressions. Did see one in Carmel that looked good wrapped. Neither one being used by contractors at construction sites. I just havent noticed EV trucks at all at construction sites and I walk or bike by those frequently.j
distracted by a new shiny object. The faithful have already pivoted to AI, robotaxi, and Optimus. I'll make a relatively easy prediction that Optimus, and robotaxi won't generate revenue in quantity for years. AI...join the crowd.
DE rebounds to_within_a_hair of all-time high, despite the tepid outlook on yesterday’s FY1Q15 CC (#msg-175802670). This is just an amazing stock.
TSLA - the WWII experience is still raw with folks in Europe. That Nazi flavored salute is seen as a betrayal by many and sales are plummeting.
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musks-toxicity-could-spell-disaster-for-tesla/
I cancelled my CT order way before that happened. The were enough reasons already without the injection of politics. 1. released product did not come close to meeting promises at prototype debut. 2. I sat in a Rivian RT1 3. Twitter turning into a toilet wall in a bad school district. 4 Musk taking a political stand (just stick to business). 5. the wish of not driving a car that is associated with ANY controversial political decisions. Having said that, I don't mind the things that DOGE is attempting but the AHOLE signaling stuff needs to go.
Cooking on a seasoned cast iron pan gets you much better flavor, heat distribution and healthier. Plus they are compatible with magnetic induction ranges. The only downside is the weight. I use cast iron pretty much for everything except soups.
DE reports FY1Q25* results—maintains FY2025 EPS guidance with a proviso:
https://investor.deere.com/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/DE-1Q25-News-Release.pdf
Background: FY2023 was a peak-cycle year in the agriculture-equipment market (which comprises ~70% of DE’s profits), and hence FY2024 was a down year. DE expects FY2025 to be another down year, closer to mid-cycle than to the peak for the ag business.
Details: FY2025 net income is expected to be $5.0-5.5B, down from $7.1B in FY2024 and $10.2B in FY2023. However, DE’s FY2025 guidance does not take into account any impact from tariffs.
Based on an estimated 270M diluted shares, the FY2025 net-income guidance equates to FY2025 GAAP EPS of $18.52-20.37. At the current share price (~$460 as I’m typing), the guidance represents a forward P/E of 22-25x.
Based on all of the above, the share price is down about 3% today. The stock was recently trading at an all-time high, but uncertainty about macroeconomic trends tariffs appear to be driving today’s selloff. DE is major buyer of steel, and the new 25% tariff on imported steel will raise the price of both imported and domestic steel in the US market. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs by other countries against US agricultural exports could put a dent in US farmers’ ability to pay for new and upgraded machinery.
FY1Q25 CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/DE-1Q25-Earnings-Call-Presentation_Final.pdf
*DE’s fiscal years end on the last Sunday in October. FY1Q25 ran from 10/28/24 to 1/28/25, essentially the Nov/Dec/Jan period.
Minnesota bans PFAS in cookware and certain other consumer products:
https://www.wsj.com/business/forever-chemicals-fight-heats-up-in-kitchens-71555653
A fight over nonstick pans has moved to the front burner in Minnesota. The state last month became the first to ban the sale of cookware containing the so-called “forever chemicals” known as PFAS.
…The Cookware Sustainability Alliance, which represents the makers of brands such as T-fal, Circulon and All-Clad, is suing the state over the ban. It said the most common type of PFAS used in nonstick pots and pans—PTFE, best known by the brand name Teflon—has been deemed safe by the Food and Drug Administration.
Minnesota’s prohibition doesn’t stop with cookware. It covers 11 categories of consumer goods that contain PFAS, including dental floss, carpets and children’s products.
…Three states—Colorado, Maine and Vermont—have bans similar to Minnesota’s that are due to take effect next year. Rhode Island is set to follow in 2027 and Connecticut the year after that.
Nice day for Cliffs. They'll need it.
1st there was Tesla.....
Sigma considers selling controlling stake as BYD, VW eye lithium supply
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/sigma-considers-selling-controlling-stake-as-byd-vw-eye-lithium-supply
I can understand BYD wanting to assure a source of Lithium based on their plan to increase their focus on growing the battery business, but not so much VW's interest. Maybe Sigma will be acquired.
MBLY/LYFT announcement today about rolling out robotaxi trial by 2026. Marubeni Group will provide fleet and maintenance services. Don't know anything about the latter. A search through their extensive subsidiaries list shows their experience in having Pepboys like operations in Thailand, Indonesia and Mexico. Nothing in the US yet. Do they buy or build or JV? MBLY up 10%+ a night after Uber CEO showed why robotaxis concept still a ways to fruition. MBLY/Moovit partnership in Japan is about 1-2 passanger transport - almost sounds like an ADA type service for the elderly. IMO the move gets faded.
Link below is Marubeni Thailand "car maintenance" operation.
https://www.b-quik.com/en
CLF should have a strong day on Monday in response to the new 25% tariffs on steel (and aluminum):
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/09/business/trump-tariffs-steel-aluminum
BYD to ship Autopilot features across the entire lineup, from Seagull to Yangwang U8, in 2025
https://carnewschina.com/2025/01/17/byd-to-ship-autopilot-features-across-entire-lineup-from-seagull-to-yangwang-u8-in-2025
The 2024 price war will continue to be brutal in 2025. However, there will be one change. It will not be purely price competition and a race to the bottom but also configuration competition about who can offer the best ADAS specs at that bottom
BYD Shares Soar 21% This Week as Traders Await Autopilot Update
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/byd-shares-soar-20-week-034424410.html
“BYD’s acceleration of autopilot progress will have meaningful impact on the market given its position as industry leader, and other players, especially mass market brands, will follow,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Tina Hou wrote in a note, adding that the bank expects BYD to share the recent road-test experience of its “God’s Eye” autopilot system and new model pipelines.
Market disliked the AI capex apparently. IDK what the well posed questions on AI are yet. I just have a flake of a thought - if AI is our future, what will AI look like and what will the UX look like and who has the closest strawman to it now? Of course, the presumption here is that humans still provide the chips and the power to run the chips. Otherwise, AI doesn't really need us.
ABT hits 3-year high. A steady, reliable stock for turbulent times. Unlike many healthcare companies, ABT doesn’t do much importing.
Does Trump's EO concerning Ambler Rd. open the potential for developing the Pebble Mine? If it does NAK looks like a relatively inexpensive stock...albeit high risk. A lot of dominos have to line up before the property can be mined
https://pebblewatch.com/pebble-project/
Your GOOG statement is accurate:
https://www.wsj.com/tech/alphabet-googl-q4-earnings-report-2024-284f4085
…Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said Google was accelerating its investments in the data centers that power AI, both for his company and clients of its cloud-computing business. Pichai said Google would spend about $75 billion on capital expenditures this year, compared with $52.5 billion in 2024.
Possible indication on infrastructure investment coming from GOOG. They say CapEx in 2025 will be $75B, up 47% y/y. (I obtained this second hand, but I believe it to be reliable).
The risk is moderate and commensurate with a 7.5% interest rate, IMO.
Haven't posted about STRL in a while. The price skyrocketed over $200 and took a big hit because of Deep Seek. If you think big tech still intends to follow through with its infrastructure investments, STRL is a good value IMO. Would be interested to hear opinions from the posters here on that topic.
Don't follow CLF any more. Do you have an opinion as to whether these notes are low risk?
CLF sells—upsized—$850M of 6yr notes @7.50%:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-inc-announces-upsizing-212700449.html
The proceeds will be used, in part, to repay the balance on CLF’s asset-based credit facility.
Xpeng going the opposite way of Tesla in the market. Perhaps a signal of faster market share gain if a trade war gets waged because they are making a better Model Y and starting to export it.
I'm sure the CCP has been gathering all public domain data and more for years from everywhere. The party is very paranoid about sustaining their system of governing. That system of governing looks like an example that the US voters wish to emulate to some degree.
EssilorLuxottica—(EL.PA)—launches eyeglasses with embedded hearing aid:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/03/3019204/0/en/EssilorLuxottica-receives-FDA-clearance-and-EU-certifications-for-Nuance-Audio-making-it-available-to-consumers-in-the-U-S-and-Europe.html
This OTC product is thematic for this message board.
CLF pre-announces “trough” 4Q24 results:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-cliffs-provides-preliminary-fourth-123200578.html
Fourth-quarter 2024 results expectations:
• Steel shipments of 3.8 million net tons
• Revenues of approximately $4.3 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $85 million
Lourenco Goncalves, Cliffs’ Chairman, President, and CEO said: "Other than the COVID-impacted 2020, 2024 was the worst year for domestic steel demand since 2010. As the largest supplier to the automotive industry in North America, we were especially impacted by muted demand from this sector in the second half of the year. This was the primary driver of our weaker results, particularly in the fourth quarter, which we expect to be the trough as we look forward.
So far into this new year, we have already seen improvements in our order book, both automotive and non-automotive, and are confident that the manufacturing-friendly items on President Trump’s agenda will have an outsized benefit on Cleveland-Cliffs. This includes the recently announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China and the expectation that there is more to come on steel specifically. Stelco has been a major contributor since day 1 and a substantial portion of our expected synergies are already in motion. Based on their experience in 2018, we expect Stelco will benefit from steel tariffs as well.
DeepSeek explicitly sends US Data to China
https://www.wired.com/story/deepseek-ai-china-privacy-data/
Amid ongoing fears over TikTok, Chinese generative AI platform DeepSeek says it’s sending heaps of US user data straight to its home country, potentially setting the stage for greater scrutiny.
To be clear, DeepSeek is sending your data to China. The English-language DeepSeek privacy policy, which lays out how the company handles user data, is unequivocal: “We store the information we collect in secure servers located in the People's Republic of China.”
In other words, all the conversations and questions you send to DeepSeek, along with the answers that it generates, are being sent to China or can be. DeepSeek’s privacy policies also outline the information it collects about you, which falls into three sweeping categories: information that you share with DeepSeek, information that it automatically collects, and information that it can get from other sources.
Other personal information that goes to DeepSeek includes data that you use to set up your account, including your email address, phone number, date of birth, username, [IP adress, computer platform] and more. Likewise, if you get in touch with the company, you’ll be sharing information with it.
DeepSeek - Aside from the politcal boundary conditions imposed by the CCP, there are technical merits to methods that end run the hardware/CUDA requirements for brute-force ML training approaches. It also means we get there faster than people think with many competitors. "There" being AGI.
https://youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/05_the_short_case_for_nvda
CVX reports (soft) 4Q24 results—raises dividend for 37th consecutive_year:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-reports-fourth-quarter-2024-111500056.html
The new annualized dividend is $6.84 (up from $6.52). At the current share price (~$150), the new payout represents a yield of 4.6%.
CAT reports 4Q24 results—issues soft 2025 guidance:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/caterpillar-reports-fourth-quarter-full-113000036.html
CAT does not issue specific guidance for any year or quarter; however, management said that 2025 was expected to be “slightly” down from 2024, and this was enough to send the share price down 4% today. Despite today’s selloff, CAT is +26% from its 12-month low.
p.s. CAT’s reciprocating-engine business is an AI-infrastructure play (#msg-174689607), so the stock had a mild selloff earlier this week on the DeepSeek news.