Replies to post #130014 on Biotech Values

[usubanas]

Management noted that in a recent Roche trial, DTIC showed overall survival in BRAF melanoma patients of about 8 months. The Phase 2 combo selumetinib trial in BRAF melanoma patients has still not reached the pre-specified number of events and top-line results are now not expected until 1H2012. (The trial completed enrollment over 18 months ago.)

oh well, i'll try not to get too excited about that. a couple more things that i liked and are new to me:

slide 11, potential size of KRAS mutant NSCLC market: 1 billion (thought it was much smaller)
slide 10, selumetinib royalty: potential double-digits (since it's such an old collaboration and they had never mentioned it, i had assumed it was single-digits)

big believer in ARRY and mostly in their MEK inhibitors used in combination. mcbio: thanks for all the useful information.

[iwfal]

ARRY -

Slide 13 (12:30 mark) - Management noted that in a recent Roche trial, DTIC showed overall survival in BRAF melanoma patients of about 8 months. The Phase 2 combo selumetinib trial in BRAF melanoma patients has still not reached the pre-specified number of events and top-line results are now not expected until 1H2012. (The trial completed enrollment over 18 months ago.)

A quick FYI: Assuming exponential survival curves and a trigger of 75% of patients having died then hitting trigger between Jan and Jun of 2012 implies a blended median survival of between about 10 and 12.5 months.

Obviously the uncertainties are numerous: What is the trigger? How quickly will hitting trigger induce end of trial? ... And, of course, the big one - what is the historical range of survival in this patient population.