Replies to post #130025 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

A quick FYI: Assuming exponential survival curves and a trigger of 75% of patients having died then hitting trigger between Jan and Jun of 2012 implies a blended median survival of between about 10 and 12.5 months.

What are you referring to when you reference trigger here? Also, can you expand any on how you arrive at blended median survival of between about 10 and 12.5 months? That number sounds low to me given that enrollment was completed over 18 months ago and we have still yet to reach the pre-specified number of events (deaths) but I have nowhere near your stats background. ; ) Also, how do complete responses impact measurements of overall survival? ARRY had previously disclosed a complete response in the Phase 1 combo trial of selumetinib in BRAF melanoma patients (no guarantees it wasn't in the control arm of course).

Obviously the uncertainties are numerous: What is the trigger? How quickly will hitting trigger induce end of trial? ... And, of course, the big one - what is the historical range of survival in this patient population.

Again, if you can provide any guidance on what you are referring to as trigger here, including what is normally used as a trigger in these types of trials, that would be helpful. I think historical range of survival in this patient population is the 8 months that ARRY management referred to. I believe that was the number for the control arm in the recent Zelboraf BRAF trial, which is the same control arm, and similar type of patient population, used in the ongoing selumetinib trial.