Biotech Values

[iwfal]

ARRY -

Slide 13 (12:30 mark) - Management noted that in a recent Roche trial, DTIC showed overall survival in BRAF melanoma patients of about 8 months. The Phase 2 combo selumetinib trial in BRAF melanoma patients has still not reached the pre-specified number of events and top-line results are now not expected until 1H2012. (The trial completed enrollment over 18 months ago.)

A quick FYI: Assuming exponential survival curves and a trigger of 75% of patients having died then hitting trigger between Jan and Jun of 2012 implies a blended median survival of between about 10 and 12.5 months.

Obviously the uncertainties are numerous: What is the trigger? How quickly will hitting trigger induce end of trial? ... And, of course, the big one - what is the historical range of survival in this patient population.