Replies to post #129305 on Biotech Values

[orangeone]

Is it right to assume an AG will cause decline in pricing of enoxaparin, even in the Ampha launch doesn't happen? Are there comparators in the industry?

[zipjet]

Not sure I understand the fretting on this?

As you know, I was on record that an AG would launch AND that the PI would not issue against aL. The launch of the AG makes it even more* likely that the TRO is dissolved, IMO.

So focusing on the hybrid rewards to MNTA seems likely to be short lived (a few days) in my world view.

if you assume no loss of market share (for the purposes of illustration) the loss is actually fairly small.

I do not assume that. My sense of profit maximization suggests that SNY should target the AG at the pharma segment where mL has done best. I would undercut the pricing and guaranty best pricing to the pharma channel. I would guess SNY could take half or more of that degraded market. That carries some risk but less so if you expect an aL or tL launch in the next 6 months.

ij

* reduced irreparable harm due to AG