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Re: iwfal post# 129305

Tuesday, 10/25/2011 9:58:03 AM

Tuesday, October 25, 2011 9:58:03 AM

Post# of 257262

Not sure I understand the fretting on this?



As you know, I was on record that an AG would launch AND that the PI would not issue against aL. The launch of the AG makes it even more* likely that the TRO is dissolved, IMO.

So focusing on the hybrid rewards to MNTA seems likely to be short lived (a few days) in my world view.

if you assume no loss of market share (for the purposes of illustration) the loss is actually fairly small.



I do not assume that. My sense of profit maximization suggests that SNY should target the AG at the pharma segment where mL has done best. I would undercut the pricing and guaranty best pricing to the pharma channel. I would guess SNY could take half or more of that degraded market. That carries some risk but less so if you expect an aL or tL launch in the next 6 months.

ij

* reduced irreparable harm due to AG

It is astonishing what foolish things one can temporarily believe if one thinks too long alone ... where it is often impossible to bring one's ideas to a conclusive test either formal or experimental. J.M. Keynes

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