Replies to post #129307 on Biotech Values

[go seek]

MNTA: FWIW I think it is wrong to assume an Amphastar enox launch will occur in the near future.

[y3maxx]

""Is it right to assume an AG will cause decline in pricing of enoxaparin,""

Orangeone...the generic price should remain where it is.

Looks like SNY will absorb a drop in gross profits to protect its market share (and MNTA's).

...SNY IS OBVIOUSLY INITIATING THIS MOVE TO MAKE ANY THIRD OR FOURTH GENERIC LAUNCH UNPALATABLE AS POSSIBLE...


y3

[iwfal]

MNTA -

Is it right to assume an AG will cause decline in pricing of enoxaparin, even in the Ampha launch doesn't happen? Are there comparators in the industry?

Sorry for the delayed answer - i forgot about your post while I was taking time to cogitate on it myself. (which tells you right there that there are people on this board better prepared to answer your question). But, regardless, my poorly informed thoughts on this are that if:

a) Ampha does not come on the market then Sandoz will remain near 50% market share - because two players can tacitly settle on a fair market share via signaling etc.

b) Ampha does arrive on the market - then AG takes 25% of market share because it is too difficult to hit a tacit take

That said, i don't have any real world data to say this is, on average, how it often plays out.

PS Nice to have, apparently, another patent attorney on the board.

[DewDiligence]

Are there comparators in the industry?

A triopoly for the ages (where one of the three entrants is an authorized generic) is due to start in a few weeks and last for 180 days: Lipitor. However, in the Lipitor triopoly, the AG will be sold by a bona fide third party (WPI), so it’s not exactly analogous to the Lovenox situation.