The trigger of an AG launch is only one component of MNTA’s argument for irreparable harm, and it’s a relatively minor component of the argument, as you can see if you read the pleadings.
Inasmuch as SNY has always had the right to launch an AG irrespective of what Amphastar (or any other company) does, I doubt that MNTA’s argument about the threat of an AG launch would have figured into the Judge’s thinking on a PI in a material way. Hence, the Judge’s calculus on whether to issue a PI hasn’t materially changed since last Friday, IMO, despite your protestations to the contrary.
The launch of the AG makes it even more* likely that the TRO is dissolved, IMO.
Is this really that likely given that the harm to MNTA is significantly more if aL launches in addition to the AG? Will MNTA be able to argue that the AG launch harm while painful is not significant?