Replies to post #6563 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[nimbus]

Hi Mark,

In my time backtesting X_DEV to get proper set-ups there are many many stocks that yield the 100%/yr. Most of these are safer stocks than I ever looked at to get AIM action. I was amazed really. You can eye-ball a chart and not expect such results but the back-test proves those results were acheivable. X_DEV makes quick and continuous profits from the smaller "monthly" bumps. RL based AIM essentially damps out these bumps and does not profit from them. Even looking at RMBS today was a delightly find. Hard to argue against >300% in 16 months with B/H at 21%.

As for risk - X_DEV takes the capital at risk off the table very quickly, usually in the first set of sales. That is hard to beat! It's bands tell you when it is safest to make the first set of buys, which has so far worked extremely well.

I don't know of any place where all the competing methods are putting their "FACTS" on the table (performance, cash stats, ...) so all I rely on is my own work and draw my own conclusions.

One fact is that X_DEV prompted virtually all of my holdings to go to 100% cash in early December (as it did RMBS as well!) where-as most AIM users are cheering having a single sale of 5% of their holdings in a small handful of issues. As the market has retreated 5% since then, 95% of AIM holdings have sunk with it, and most are completely out of cash to do anything once the "new" bottom is reached. That tells me A LOT.

[Undertakr]

I completely agree with you. All of these outrageous claims are obviously made based on the exact best case scenario. I just downloaded X_Dev's free trail and I found the following interesting, using THEIR default stocks and THEIR default dates:

QLGC - 6/23/2002 - 12/23/2002
X_Dev - Loss of 11.26%
Buy and Hold - Gain of 14.78%

QQQ - 6/23/2002 - 12/23/2002
X_Dev - Gain of 10.91%
Buy and Hold - Gain of 16.95%

WMT - 6/23/2002 - 12/23/2002
X_Dev - Gain of 10.94%
Buy and Hold - Gain of 4.33%

A think of note on Walmart, X_Dev got their 10.94% gain because they are now TOTALLY in a cash position on Walmart with 0 shares of stock on the screen that I have, which is completely bad since Walmart has been in a buy state the last few days at least, if not the past week or two, even today going down over a dollar a share.

So, if we add up the gains and losses using X_Dev's samples in their demo:

X_Dev - Gain of 10.59% overall
Buy and Hold - Gain of 36.06% overall

Now, I'm not saying X_Dev is bad, and I'm sure a user would tweak settings to get the best out of the program, what I am trying to say is ANY software program is no magical solution and as Mark said, when people make this outrageous claims, even AIM's claim of making you a millionaire, those claims are made under best possible scenarios and hindsight. I challenge any program to choose 5 stocks TODAY and make 100% returns on all of them or to make someone a millionaire with those stocks in 7 years. THEN you'd have concrete proof.

Heck, I can say, I CAN GUARENTEE YOU A MILLION DOLLARS! And then say, "If I bought 1 share of Coca Cola when it debuted, using my system where I never sell that 1 share AND I buy more shares, you'd be a millionaire RIGHT NOW!" Well, of course you would.

- Takr