Replies to post #5328 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[karw]

A or B

Maybe you should not buy now. The downside risk is still there.

Maybe it is a reasonable idea to look at MACRO AIM. You can use as your buy point, the crossover of price with 1MEA, 3, 6 or 10MEA. In stead of price crossover you can use the crossover of 1MEA with 3,6 or 10MEA; a fast EA in stead of price to avoid a sudden temporary price spike.

Personally that would be my strategy, especially because of the coming sub-war in Irak, although this could be priced-in.
Be ready to move in as soon as the crossover is materializing.

Why not wait some more?

Good luck, K

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi AorB, Remember that one of the goals of AIM is to be periodically 100% invested. Start with the cash reserve that makes you comfortable and then let AIM take the burden of worry off your shoulders. When AIM's guided you to be 100% invested, then you will have done a good job under whatever the circumstances are. What more can you do?

The "crash" of 1987 was brutal. Nobody knew at the time it was going to last just a short while. AIM didn't know it. However, AIM did a magnificent job of buying the heck out of a nasty bear market. AIM didn't know that it was going to take two years for the NASDAQ Comp. to return to previous highs. It didn't know that the DOW was going to languish until after the Gulf War. It just quietly did its job.

No matter what Equity/Cash ratio you choose, you should be able to adapt to the circumstances as they present themselves. Should you decide to be conservative on the Cash Reserve side, then possibly you should also be conservative on the trade frequency end as well.

I suggest you document your feelings on the day you start your accounts. Include the reasons for why you chose certain variables like Cash Reserve %age, trade frequency, and selection process. Then when you review your accounts later under other circumstances, you'll have a firm base of information from which to guide your next moves.

A safe way to start AIM accounts is to ignore the actual market conditions and always start them as though we're heading for the worst BEAR market in history. This will help to contain one's enthusiasm!

Please feel free to as questions as your accounts take shape. Also, please keep us informed as to your periodic trades as this is instructive to all other readers - especially newbies to AIM.

Best regards, Tom

[Conrad]

Hello AIM Or Bust,

I think you will get plenty of advice on this and not all of it will be the same. The most important issue here is your evaluation of the SciTech fund at about 15 percent of its high value. The first question you should answer, or find an answer to is: Is SciTech worth Buying?

If the answer is Yes the this implies that it will very likely survive any possible decline in the economy as a whole. My advice is to jump in at 60-80 % cash. This prepares you for a substantial drop an you can buy extra cheap shares. If the stock starts rising right away and you think(beliefs are of no use here) that the rise is structural then you should jump in with the rest of the cash. This would follow the method of the Vortex Stop/Buy or the MACRO method of Don Carlson.

For the Vortex Demo Funds I have selected a current CER of 80/20, but I am the proverbial Optimist. I thought that the Recovery would take off on September 11th, and I was wrong on that. So for I others I advise a restrained optimism, and: Don't be scared. Be Bold! Go for it.

For the other stock the same principles apply. These days is what I call Opportunity Time:

Buying one cake and eating two!


Conrad

[irwin]

Hi Aim or Bust this software might help

http://www.chartsmart.com/theory11.htm

Good luck
Irwin