A or B
Maybe you should not buy now. The downside risk is still there.
Maybe it is a reasonable idea to look at MACRO AIM. You can use as your buy point, the crossover of price with 1MEA, 3, 6 or 10MEA. In stead of price crossover you can use the crossover of 1MEA with 3,6 or 10MEA; a fast EA in stead of price to avoid a sudden temporary price spike.
Personally that would be my strategy, especially because of the coming sub-war in Irak, although this could be priced-in.
Be ready to move in as soon as the crossover is materializing.
Why not wait some more?
Good luck, K