I see Powell`s statements abandoning Taiwan a big sign of weakness on the part of the U.S. Having said that I cant pretend to have a great understanding of politics of the region. It is going to take me a while to digest your post. However looking at the map underscores several things to me.
a: your statement that this is the real war seems in no way unreasonable to me. Huff and puff as they might about pipelines through Israel and other places the straight of Hormuz is a key economic and military choke point.
b: As has been the trend in my mind ever since participating in this thread China seems to be poised to be the number 2 power threatening our number 1 position. They hold a lot of trump cards.
c: Russians ability to remain a big player will depend on their ability to develop arms and to play the diplomacy game. They have been good at both in the past but I see it more and more of an uphill battle. Putins inability to show up at key pipeline deals due to assasination attempts is a big sign of weakness to me. Interesting thought to think of the Russians 20 years from now in the shadow of the Chinese as Canada is in our shadow.
d: The India Russian joint military exercises with nuke subs was not only a message to the U.S. but also a signal to China.
e: I wonder how much a cozy relationship with Pakistan could ease Chinas dependence on the straights of Malacca.
F: I wonder more and more how much the Bush administration is like the Reagan camp. The Reaganoids acomplished many of their nasty ( I keep thinking of the Belsan event and all the killing by the Reaganoid rebels in Latin America ) goals behind the scenes while the Dems laughed at what a dunce Reagan was. I have never thought W was smart enough to figure out his kids tinker toy set much less run the war. I figure daddy Bush is calling most of the shots. So far however it seems to me that his plan is to make a lot of money off a war that cant be won. Time will tell if I am wrong about that. I think a lot depends on how much India,China and Russia can work together rather than fight over regional power.
Defense pact to expand India's Sri Lanka role By Sudha Ramachandran
The increased cooperation with regard to naval surveillance that is likely under the proposed defense pact would be a check on Tiger activity in the seas. A retired Indian diplomat told Asia Times Online that "for Colombo, it would be a step towards choking off Tiger transport of weaponry from overseas; for India, it would help neutralize the threat of maritime terrorism posed by the LTTE." It could also provide India access to Lankan seas and ports "and enable India to project its force more effectively in the Indian Ocean".
-Am
BANGALORE - India and Sri Lanka are in the final stages of concluding a bilateral defense cooperation agreement. The proposed pact, which is expected to be signed by the end of the year, could see India's role in the island nation increase significantly.
The pact has been under discussion for the past year. Talks were put on hold for a while after the change of government in both countries. But with the new governments in both countries keen on carrying forward the pact, things started moving quickly over the past couple of months.
Last week, officials from the two countries met in Colombo to finalize the draft agreement. According to a Sri Lankan Defense Ministry press release, officials discussed military training, exchange of military intelligence and information, maritime surveillance to prevent illegal activities affecting both countries, official visits and bilateral meetings at different levels, participation in training programs and joint military exercises. India is likely to sell Sri Lanka advanced light helicopters, small arms and ammunitions, artillery pieces, special clothing, and other items.
The proposed pact has been described as "general in nature, falling in the category of a standard bilateral, a kind of agreement which India has with many other countries," officials said. According to officials, "It formalizes existing cooperation and provides a framework for cooperation in the future."
Sources in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs say in private that the pact is "far-reaching" and "historic", a "milestone in India-Sri Lanka relations" that could see India "return as a player in the Sri Lankan conflict in a major way".
In July 1987, India and Sri Lanka signed an agreement aimed at politically resolving the ethnic conflict in the island but which eventually led to India deploying its troops in the northeast of Sri Lanka. From October 1987 until March 1990, the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) was engaged in military operations against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a bloody counter-insurgency operation that cost the Indian forces almost 1,200 lives.
The IPKF experience in Sri Lanka and the rather arbitrary manner in which the then Lankan government called on India to pull out its troops plunged India-Sri Lanka relations to an all-time low. The events of 1987-90 cast a long shadow on India's policy toward Sri Lanka, the LTTE and the ethnic conflict, contributing to India adopting a "hands-off approach" towards the Lankan crisis thereafter. In May 1991, former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated by the LTTE. A year later, India became the first country to ban the LTTE.
While India's relations with Sri Lanka slowly warmed with Chandrika Kumaratunga becoming the Sri Lankan president in 1994, its role in the ethnic crisis remained low profile. Even when it seemed that the Jaffna Peninsula might fall to the LTTE in 2000, New Delhi refused to come to the assistance of the Sri Lankan military, preferring to limit its help to humanitarian assistance. On the economic front, bilateral relations have deepened substantially in recent years.
But its "hands-off policy" notwithstanding, India has been very much involved in the Lankan quest for a solution to the ethnic crisis. Norwegian mediators as well as the Lankan government have been keeping India briefed on developments related to the peace process. And far from being a neutral observer of the peace process, India has been quietly supportive of the government by not demanding extradition of LTTE leader Velupillai Prabakaran, the prime figure accused of masterminding the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, and at the same time keeping the pressure on the LTTE by keeping in place the ban on the organization. Training of Lankan soldiers has been going on. Besides, the two countries have been cooperating in naval surveillance of the waters around the Jaffna Peninsula, keeping an eye on LTTE attempts to ferry arms and fuel into the peninsula.
This overtly aloof, quietly supportive role India has been playing is now poised to change with the defense pact. India's role is likely to become more assertive and overt in its military support to the Lankan government.
Marine surveillance is one area in which India and Sri Lanka will work together. The two countries are separated by a mere 22 miles of shallow waters at its closest point, and for years the Tigers have treated the Indian state of Tamil Nadu as their rear base, turning to it for supplies and sanctuary. Although India has dismantled much of this support infrastructure in Tamil Nadu, the entry of Tigers into the state cannot be stopped completely as Tigers posing as fisherman can get through.
Professor V Suryanarayan, an Indian expert on Sri Lankan affairs, points to the "emergence of the 'Sea Tigers' [the LTTE's naval wing] as a credible fighting force in India's maritime neighborhood". In an op-ed article in The Hindu, he draws attention to the objectives of the Sea Tigers, their impressive military capacity and the dangers posed by maritime terrorism to India.
The LTTE has been claiming "rights" in the seas along the coast of the northeast. Their 2003 proposal for an LTTE-dominated interim self-government in the northeast envisaged control over the marine and offshore resources of the "adjacent [to the northeast] seas and the power to regulate access thereto". Implicit in this, according the Sea Tigers, is a de facto naval status and a maritime boundary dividing Sri Lankan territorial waters that would leave the LTTE in charge on one side of Sri Lanka's international boundary line with India. Suryanarayan warns that in case Colombo were "to accept these proposals, two-thirds of Sri Lanka's coastline will come under Tiger control".
Suryanarayan warns that "if effective steps are not taken, the LTTE will expand its geographic space as well as range of operations, posing a threat to South Asian security." India, he writes, "should work with the objective of neutralizing the Sea Tigers at the earliest opportunity."
The increased cooperation with regard to naval surveillance that is likely under the proposed defense pact would be a check on Tiger activity in the seas. A retired Indian diplomat told Asia Times Online that "for Colombo, it would be a step towards choking off Tiger transport of weaponry from overseas; for India, it would help neutralize the threat of maritime terrorism posed by the LTTE." It could also provide India access to Lankan seas and ports "and enable India to project its force more effectively in the Indian Ocean".
The draft pact will now move for approval by the political leadership in the two countries. Since it was Sri Lanka's opposition United National Party that mooted the pact proposal last year when it was in power, its objections to the defense agreement will be muted. The Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), a Sinhalese nationalist party that was at the forefront of the violent anti-India campaign in the 1987-90 period and is now part of the ruling coalition, has changed track on the issue of Indian involvement in Sri Lanka. Earlier this year, JVP leader Somawamse Amarasinghe "warmly embraced the proposed defense pact" between India and Sri Lanka and had said the defense pact "should be made an important aspect of our [Sri Lanka's] foreign policy". The JVP is virulently anti-LTTE.
It is from the LTTE that the pact will face the most ferocious opposition. The Tigers had warned earlier this year that the defense agreement with India could damage the already fragile ceasefire between them and the government. Unlike the previous government, which was anxious to keep the truce alive at any cost, the present Lankan government is unlikely to feel as inhibited by the possible LTTE response - a withdrawal from the ceasefire.
In India, opposition to the pact is likely to come from within the government. The Dravida Munethra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Marumalarchi DMK are sympathetic to the LTTE. Indian officials seem confident that they will be able to overcome resistance from these two Tamil nationalist parties once the strategic goals are explained. A critical issue that will determine how the Tamil parties respond would be what provisions the pact makes for India's response to a military emergency in Sri Lanka. The Tamil parties will have to be convinced that Delhi's military co-operation with Colombo does not undermine Sri Lankan Tamil interests - a tough task.
The India-Sri Lanka defense pact is the first of its kind in the region, the proposal a Colombo initiative. Delhi will be looking to others in the region to follow Colombo's lead.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent researcher/writer based in Bangalore, India. She has a doctoral degree from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, in New Delhi. Her areas of interest include terrorism, conflict zones and gender and conflict. Formerly an assistant editor at the Deccan Herald (Bangalore) she now teaches at the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
Khalilzad said the United States and other donors were restoring the Afghan ring road and regional spurs that would create two north-south axes terminating at the Pakistan port of Gwadar and Iranian port of Chabahar facing the Arabian Sea. Planning is underway for rail and pipelines connecting Central Asia to South Asia and world markets through the Arabian Sea, he said.
-Am
Afghanistan set to regain ‘land bridge’ role for Asia
* Khalilzad says region artificially fragmented by 20th century politics
WASHINGTON: Afghanistan is set to reestablish its role as a “land bridge” linking much of Asia and drive growth in the four trillion dollar broader regional market, a top US official said on Wednesday.
Afghanistan’s transformation to a democracy will “reestablish the country’s role as a land bridge connecting Central Asia, South Asia and Southwest Asia,” US ambassador to Kabul Zalmay Khalilzad said.
US-backed Afghan leader Hamid Karzai has apparently prevailed in the country’s landmark October 11 presidential elections — though official results are not in, Karzai is well ahead with at least 55 percent of the ballots counted.
The region is a “historic and growing regional market with a total gross domestic product of four trillion dollars,” said Khalilzad, the highest-ranking native Afghan and Muslim in the Bush administration. Speaking at John Hopkins University in Washington, Khalilzad — who is seen as having played a key role in Karzai’s victory — said the region had been artificially fragmented by politics of the 20th century.
The Cold War, the India-Pakistan conflict, the Iranian revolution and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan have all “sundered east-west and north-south lines of trade and communication,” he said, noting however “these divisions are being overcome.”
Khalilzad said the United States and other donors were restoring the Afghan ring road and regional spurs that would create two north-south axes terminating at the Pakistan port of Gwadar and Iranian port of Chabahar facing the Arabian Sea. Planning is underway for rail and pipelines connecting Central Asia to South Asia and world markets through the Arabian Sea, he said.
The connections will have both economic and geopolitical effects, said Khalilzad, who is seen by many as holding real power in the country. afp
Iran, China sign 100 billion dollar gas deal AFP: 10/29/2004
One would be tempted to consider Iran now under China’s protection.
-Am
TEHRAN, Oct 29 (AFP) - Iran and China have signed a preliminary accord under which China would buy 10 million tonnes a year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for 25 years in a deal worth 100 billion dollars, the student news agency ISNA said Friday.
ISNA quoted Deputy Oil Minister Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian as saying the deal could eventually reach 15 to 20 million tonnes a year, taking the total value to as much as 200 billion dollars.
Delivery could not begin for at least five years, as Iran must first build the plants to liquefy the natural gas.
The memorandum of understanding also grants to Chinese oil giant Sinopec the right to exploit the Yadavaran oil field on a buy-back basis in cooperation with a major international oil company.
Experts say that after Yadavaran is developed, which is expected to take four years, it will have a production capacity of 300,000 barrels per day. Of that, Sinopec would take 150,000 bpd.
China signs $70 billion oil and LNG agreement with Iran Deal's political benefits could arrive before economic ones
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Saturday, October 30, 2004
BEIJING: State oil giant Sinopec Group has signed a $70 billion oil field development and liquefied natural gas agreement with Iran, China's biggest energy deal with the No. 2 OPEC producer, an Iranian official said Friday.
The preliminary deal may yield political benefits far sooner than commercial ones as Iran courts China's favor on the UN Security Council, where Beijing holds a potential veto over any action against the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.
Under a memorandum of understanding signed Thursday, China's second-largest oil firm, Sinopec Group, will buy 250 million tons of LNG over 30 years from Iran and develop the giant Yadavaran field, said Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, deputy general manager of the National Iranian Oil Company.
"We've committed to sell Sinopec - after commissioning of the field - 150,000 barrels per day of crude for 25 years at market prices," Hosseini said.
Sinopec officials weren't immeditately available for comment. But LNG deliveries will not begin for at least five years as Iran struggles to catch up with industry frontrunners such as Qatar and Algeria, while the estimated 3-billion barrel Yadavaran field in the southwest will take at least four years to develop.
No time frame has been set for finalizing the investment and negotiations over Iranian oil deals often drag on for years.
Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh is on his last day of a two-day visit to Beijing to pursue closer ties with China, whose biggest oil supplier is Iran, contributing 14 percent of imports.
Chinese companies have been prominent investors in the underperforming oil industry of OPEC's second-biggest producer, including Sinopec's construction of a huge oil terminal on the Caspian and deals to upgrade several refineries.
But Beijing has thus far been wary of incurring U.S. wrath through the Iran Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), which threatens penalties for firms making big investments in Iran.
Iran denies U.S. claims its nuclear power program is a smokescreen for developing an atomic bomb, but its nuclear dossier is edging closer to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.
European and Asian oil firms have also pursued Iranian deals despite ILSA, most notably Japanese INPEX's $2 billion agreement to develop the Azadegan field this year.
China leapfrogged Japan this year as the world's second-largest energy consumer, with oil demand expanding by nearly 15 percent and firms keen to secure direct oil field access.
That drive is putting China in direct competition with other fast-growing Asian economies like India as well as the U.S., the top energy user, all of whom are having to source more imported crude as domestic production falls.
Major oil exporters, particularly in the Mideast, are also anxious to boost ties with China, which will provide a market to ensure future projects.
Chinese state oil trader Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp agreed earlier this year to buy over 110 million tons of LNG from Iran over 25 years for $20 billion. But China has also signed up for purchases of LNG with Australia and Indonesia.
Hosseini said the Yadavaran oil field, which officials estimated earlier this year could hold over three billion barrels of recoverable reserves, would have a total production capacity of around 300,000 bpd.
The deal - under an emerging framework by which Iran ties LNG purchases with oil field development - is seen as more beneficial for Sinopec than the traditional buyback contracts, which apply to most foreign development deals in Iran.
China has also signed a preliminary accord with Iran to buy 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas a year, Iran's petroleum minister said Friday, as he urged Chinese oil firms to play a bigger role in developing the industry in his country.
A successful deal would help Beijing's effort to secure foreign energy supplies for its economy, which has turned China into a major oil importer but suffers severe power shortages.
Iranian Petroleum Minister Bizhan Namdar Zanganeh, in Beijing for a conference on promoting Iranian-Chinese energy cooperation, wouldn't give any details of the proposed deal.
"It needs more time to finalize the details and to sign the final contract," he said, appealing to China's state-owned oil firms to expand their role in Iran, calling it a "natural partner" to fuel China's economy.
Collaboration with Beijing would bring Tehran a new source of skills and investment at a time when U.S. sanctions block U.S. oil companies from doing business with Iran.
"We have invited Chinese companies ... to actively participate in our exploration and development projects," Zanganeh said, promising them "the greatest incentives," including tax exemptions.
Tehran plans to invest $50 billion in its energy industry over the next five years, expanding oil production capacity from 4.2 million barrels a day to 5 million, Zanganeh said. He said Iran puts the size of its reserves at 130 billion barrels of oil and 28 trillion cubic meters of gas.
Zanganeh also boasted that Iran was developing the industry in spite of "hardships unfairly placed in its path to progress," an apparent reference to U.S. sanctions. China imported 85 million barrels of Iranian crude oil last year, according to Zhang Guobao, deputy chairman of China's National Development and Reform Commission.
"China highly values oil cooperation with Iran," he said.
Beijing has been signing deals to develop oil and gas resources as far as away as Iraq, Venezuela and Sudan.
A Chinese oil firm signed a preliminary agreement in March to buy 2.5 million tons of Iranian liquefied natural gas annually in a 20-year deal worth $20 billion, according to news reports. It wasn't clear if that was included in the 10 million ton-per-year figure Zanganeh cited.
China is stepping up its use of cleaner natural gas, trying to reduce its reliance on abundant but dirty coal. A Chinese-led consortium also is building a pipeline to carry gas from China's northwestern Xinjiang region to Shanghai, the country's commercial capital.
Chinese ship inaugurates completion first phase Gwadar Port
Gwadar would put the Chinese navy next to Iran’s shipping lane the Strait of Hormuz. The Chinese have a considerable investment in Iran’s oil and gas. Bush plans on attacking Iran by choking the Strait of Hormuz. See also: #msg-3483139 #msg-2645232 #msg-3864658
While this may change, an amphibious attack was originally targeted against Iran from the Arabian Sea, with a provocative US blockade in the Gulf of Oman to choke Iran’s sealanes of communications. Pakistan would be the base for mounting massive air reconnaissance and surveillance of Iran, while Iranian dissidents, backed by the US army, would launch land assaults from the Iraq-Iran border. Diplomatic sources say, the main body of the plan would remain the same, although component tactics could change. http://www.thedailystar.net/2004/07/03/d40703100483.htm
-Am
First phase of Gwadar Port completed
QUETTA: The first phase of the Gwadar Port for the anchorage of heavy vessels was completed ahead of the scheduled date of January 2005. At a ceremony to mark the occasion, Chinese engineers supervised the anchorage of a 70-thousand tonne ship at an already prepared berth and there was a fireworks display.
President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz congratulated the Chinese engineers for their efforts and dedication. The ship that inaugurated the occasion was Chinese and carrying machinery and other equipment for the deep-sea port, which is one of the largest deep-sea ports in the world.
The berthing facility for the heavy ships was part of the first phase. Ship agent Garab Lines became the first agent to manage the anchorage of the first foreign ship at the port. online
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