Note: From the Chinese Eastern ports, the sea route towards North and South America is convenient through the Pacific Ocean. However to connect to Europe or the Middle East, it has to take a long circuitous route via the Straits of Malacca to reach the Gulf of Aden — a distance of about 5,000 miles.
Currently, 60% of China's oil imports are transmitted through the Malacca Strait. Should it ever be blocked, China would suffer enormously. #msg-4103878
Rumsfeld ‘s comments fuelled speculation that the United States wants to deploy US forces in the Strait of Malacca, the narrow and busy shipping lane straddled by Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore that is seen as a likely terrorist target. #msg-3263991
In deploying troops to the Strait of Malacca the United States would be furthering its agenda to contain and surround China. It is also imperative that Bush try and block China’s presence in Gwadar not only for economic but also for military reasons as Gwadar Port figures in Bush’s plans to dominate or invade Iran who has just now signed what has the potential to be a 200 billion dollar deal with China. #msg-4431516
The economically viable route for all goods from the Central Asian Republics lies via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the seas. However, political instability in Afghanistan and some areas in Pakistan discourage such a venture.
The Gwadar Port project is expected to cater to Chinese interests in the region. But there is another window of opportunity as well. China wants Tibet connected with the mainland by building a huge railroad. If the project succeeds, it is likely to add to the wonders of the world, taking train traffic to a hitherto unprecedented height. #msg-4405001 #msg-4419898
Gwadar would put the Chinese navy next to Iran’s shipping lane the Strait of Hormuz. The Chinese have a considerable investment in Iran’s oil and gas. Bush plans on attacking Iran by choking the Strait of Hormuz. See also: #msg-3483139 #msg-2645232 #msg-3864658
While this may change, an amphibious attack was originally targeted against Iran from the Arabian Sea, with a provocative US blockade in the Gulf of Oman to choke Iran’s sealanes of communications. Pakistan would be the base for mounting massive air reconnaissance and surveillance of Iran, while Iranian dissidents, backed by the US army, would launch land assaults from the Iraq-Iran border. Diplomatic sources say, the main body of the plan would remain the same, although component tactics could change. http://www.thedailystar.net/2004/07/03/d40703100483.htm
-Am
Cementing the Chinese connection —Shaukat Qadir
Pakistan and China have a long history of friendly relations. But they can run out of steam if we don’t nurture them properly. It is important, therefore, to identify areas where the two countries can have greater interdependency.
What are Pakistan’s options in this regard?
The Gwadar Port project is expected to cater to Chinese interests in the region. But there is another window of opportunity as well. China wants Tibet connected with the mainland by building a huge railroad. If the project succeeds, it is likely to add to the wonders of the world, taking train traffic to a hitherto unprecedented height.
But it will be more than a technical feat: the project may lead to another possibility whereby Kashgar and Havelian may get connected in a similar manner via the Khunjerab pass! This throws up a question: why would the Chinese be interested in doing that?
One can answer this by taking a look at the world map. From the Chinese Eastern ports, the sea route towards North and South America is convenient through the Pacific Ocean. However to connect to Europe or the Middle East, it has to take a long circuitous route via the Straits of Malacca to reach the Gulf of Aden — a distance of about 5,000 miles to reach the Gulf of Aden and over 6,000 miles to reach the Persian Gulf.
Travel by sea has always been the cheapest transportation option for goods produced in Eastern China. They are taken to the Eastern ports from where they are shipped abroad.
Little wonder then that China witnessed greater industrial development towards the Eastern parts of the country. Conscious of this inequality, and the sense of deprivation that it spawned among its people, Beijing has taken steps in the last two decades to correct the situation.
The oil pipeline from Kyrgyzstan ends at Urumchi, the capital of Sinkiang, which also houses an oil refinery. There has been enormous industrial growth in and around Urumchi in recent years, and I am told that the once neglected city now equals Beijing in all respects.
But how does one transport the goods produced in Urumchi to other parts of the world? Through eastern coasts in China? That way, the goods will be travelling a distance of nearly 2,000 miles on land. But if there were a railroad link — from Kashgar or Urumchi to Havelian — it would provide a cheaper and shorter route from Western China to the mouth of the Persian Gulf. In fact if Pakistan connects that rail route to Gwadar, the Chinese goods would only be travelling 1,400 miles to reach the Gulf of Aden!
In this way, it will be cheaper to transport goods from Western China to the Middle East or Europe by using the rail link. The goods may be taken to Gwadar from where they may be taken to their intended destination.
But this is not all. The economically viable route for all goods from the Central Asian Republics lies via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the seas. However, political instability in Afghanistan and some areas in Pakistan discourage such a venture. Since bringing peace to these troubled places appears difficult in foreseeable future, the Central Asian goods could also benefit from the rail link. In fact, it could even be cheaper for them to transport their goods using the rail connection instead of using the more direct overland route.
Thus, not only would this link become a commercial venture benefiting both China and Pakistan but it would also help forge a strategic relationship between the Central Asian Republics, China and Pakistan — a relationship that could result in long-term benefit for all.
One hopes someone in the corridors of power has thought about this.
Be that as it may, this venture may produce great dividends — and perhaps help us break the shackles of international financial institutions.
The author is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
But now, according to insiders, there are strong indications that Unocal could be favored by Afghan officials to return to the venture, though the company's role is not exactly clear in the ADB-led project.
There are strong indications that the United States puppet government in Afghanistan could favor an American company.
Ain’t democracy grand?
This despite that some analysts criticize Unocal for its "bad history". In his book, Afghanistan in the Blaze of Oil, Bashir Ahmad Ansari wrote Unocal has always been under public pressure over its "inhumane policies". The strongest objection against the company came in the form of a 120-page protest letter by 30 US-based organizations on December 10, 1998, submitted to legal officials in California.
"Unocal's cooperation with the Taliban regime, which was violating all human rights, especially women's rights, forced most women's organizations in the US to criticize the company," wrote Ansari. "The oppressed Afghan nation became a victim of the black dinosaur of petroleum after being sacrificed by Red communism."
Khalilzad said the United States and other donors were restoring the Afghan ring road and regional spurs that would create two north-south axes terminating at the Pakistan port of Gwadar and Iranian port of Chabahar facing the Arabian Sea. Planning is underway for rail and pipelines connecting Central Asia to South Asia and world markets through the Arabian Sea, he said. #msg-4405001
See also: The U.S./China Battle for Gwadar Port #msg-4405001
-Am
Renewed hope for Afghan pipeline By Raouf Liwal
November 23, 2004 KABUL - Prospects for the trans-Afghan pipeline seem good, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) indicating that it is set to launch a preliminary report on the US$2 billion project linking the vast gas field in Turkmenistan to Pakistan, through Afghanistan.
The earlier contenders for the project, first mooted in the 1990s, were US oil and gas company Unocal and its Argentinean rival Bridas. Both had initially agreed to pay $300 million to Afghanistan per annum as premium for using the land. But in December 1998, Unocal said it was withdrawing from the Central Asia Gas (CentGas) pipeline consortium for business reasons and would no longer have any role in supporting the development or funding of this project. Bridas, too, withdrew from the project, analysts suggest for security reasons. But now, according to insiders, there are strong indications that Unocal could be favored by Afghan officials to return to the venture, though the company's role is not exactly clear in the ADB-led project.
Half of the 1,800-kilometer pipeline will pass through Afghan territory to supply gas from the Dawlatabad city of Turkmenistan to Gawadar Port of Pakistan. The trans-Afghan pipeline has been one of the most controversial issues among Western politicians, investors and major world gas companies, including Unocal and Bridas, since 1995.
ADB officials say the primary plan of the project will soon be released. Engineer Mandokhil, an advisor to the mines and industries ministry, told Pajhwok Afghan News: "ADB's technical and economic study will be completed and the three countries involved in the project - Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkmenistan - will hold a meeting in Islamabad at the end of November. The final results will be announced then." Gul Ahmad Kamali, head of the energy and road projects with the ADB, said his organization's part in the pipeline project was to assess the facilities, provide technical advisors, and conduct surveys.
Oil analysts in the region say whoever takes the project will reap millions of dollars each year from the venture. But Afghanistan's security has been a major concern for investors. Mandokhil added that should India participate in the project, it will give more momentum to regional business.
Turkmenistan, the world's biggest producer of gas, is desperate to get its huge gas reserves out to the market and boost its weak economy by presenting its energy supplies to South and Central Asian countries. The trans-Afghanistan pipeline will first go to Pakistan's Gawadar Port of Pakistan and then to India. The gas will then be transferred to Bangkok through ships.
Hakim Taniwal, the former mines and industries minister, now minister of employment and social affairs, told Pajhwok that the three partners discussed the pipeline's security at the seventh meeting in Islamabad, as well as India's role in the project.
Engineer Nazar Mohammad Mangal, acting minister of mines and industry, said the pipeline would give Afghanistan the opportunity to get involved in regional development and economic projects. "I've just returned from India, where I attended a conference of South Asian Energy [SAE]. Afghanistan joined SAE in this conference, so the windows of hope are open for us," Mangal said.
Salam Azemi, a former Unocal advisor, said the project was very important for Afghanistan in terms of economic and regional benefits and would provide jobs for many Afghans. Afrasyab Khattak, a Pakistan-based regional analyst, said the project would benefit both Afghanistan and Pakistan, despite past hiccups. "Our region is very backward in economic development. This project will benefit our nation tremendously. Though improper rivalry and some initial problems had impeded the business, it's a good time to seize the initiative," Khattak said.
Azemi also said Bridas had started the primary survey of the project during the mujahideen government in the 1990s, but suspended plans because of the lack of security. Iran once tried the pipeline to pass its territory but failed because it was too expensive. In 1995, it was thought that the then Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, prominent Pakistani leader Nasrullah Babar, the Taliban regime and Turkmen president Safar Murad Niazov were on one side, trying give the project to Bridas. On the other side were Saudi Arabia's Delta Oil, Robin Rafael, a senior official in the US State Department, Prince Turki al-Faisal, the then-Saudi intelligence chief Zalmai Khalilzad, and moderate Taliban officials, supporting Unocal.
Pakistan, then under Bhutto, was under pressure from the US to sign the pipeline construction agreement. Insiders also say the UN special representative to Afghanistan at the time, Mahmood Misteiry, and his deputy were both sacked as the deputy was associated with Bridas. Unocal, a 108-year-old reputed oil and gas company, won the bid. It planned to train professional Afghans at the University of Nebraska to run the project.
By October 1997, Unocal established the Central Asian Gas Pipeline consortium to build the Turkmenistan-Pakistan segment of the pipeline at an estimated cost of $2 billion ($2.7 billion if extended to India). Construction was scheduled to begin as early as 1998, but the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan stalled the project. After the US air strikes in Afghanistan in August 1998, Unocal suspended its involvement in the pipeline and officially withdrew from the consortium toward the end of the year.
The revised scheme, apart from the $300 million annual income, should pave the way for extension of a railway alongside the pipeline, provide jobs to thousands of Afghans, distribute free gas to the areas through which the pipeline passes, and should ensure construction of electricity and road facilities in these areas. Azemi says Pakistan-India relations should improve and the Kashmir dispute settled before the project comes into effect.
While there's talk of Unocal's return, some analysts criticize the company for its "bad history". In his book, Afghanistan in the Blaze of Oil, Bashir Ahmad Ansari wrote Unocal has always been under public pressure over its "inhumane policies". The strongest objection against the company came in the form of a 120-page protest letter by 30 US-based organizations on December 10, 1998, submitted to legal officials in California.
"Unocal's cooperation with the Taliban regime, which was violating all human rights, especially women's rights, forced most women's organizations in the US to criticize the company," wrote Ansari. "The oppressed Afghan nation became a victim of the black dinosaur of petroleum after being sacrificed by Red communism."
This is either tied into or in direct conflict with the two north-south axes already undertaken and explained below.
Khalilzad said the United States and other donors were restoring the Afghan ring road and regional spurs that would create two north-south axes terminating at the Pakistan port of Gwadar and Iranian port of Chabahar facing the Arabian Sea. Planning is underway for rail and pipelines connecting Central Asia to South Asia and world markets through the Arabian Sea, he said. #msg-4419898
It is nonsensical to believe the United States and other donors would create such a powerful geopolitical tool as two north-south axes terminating at Gwadar and Chabahar which would leave Iran a more powerful nation.
We know that the United States is already battling for influence or a takeover of Gwadar under the circumstances I would think Chabahar is next. #msg-4419898 #msg-4804924
I do not see how the United States can let the Iranian port of Chabahar grow in influence without attacking Iran.
Note: The "heart" of Central Asia -- as its president, Islam Karimov, calls it -- Uzbekistan has become an object of interest and contention for world and regional power centers due to its geostrategic significance. The major players are the United States, Russia and China, all of which covet access to its abundant energy and mineral resources, and view it as an essential element in their designs for dominant influence in the region. #msg-5001056
Tashkent, jan 5, IRNA -- Representatives from Iran, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed here the articles of association of a tripartite agreement on transportation cooperation which will provide the Central Asia with access to the international waters. The presidents of the three countries signed a tripartite agreement for transportation cooperation in Tehran in 2004.
According to the agreement, a new route will be made available for transportation of commodities among Iran, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan and that the Central Asian countries could get access to the international waters.
A council will be established by the three countries to monitor transport of goods from Tashkent in Uzbekistan to Chabahar port in southern Iran and from Afghanistan to Chabahar.
The articles of association of the tripartite agreement was signed by the caretaker of Iran's Ministry of Roads and Transportation Ahmad Sadeq Bonab, Afghan Minister of Public Works Sohrab Safari and Uzbek Acting Minister of Transportation Feyzollah Yov.
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