Foreign Correspondence

[CoalTrain]

I see Powell`s statements abandoning Taiwan a big sign of weakness on the part of the U.S. Having said that I cant pretend to have a great understanding of politics of the region. It is going to take me a while to digest your post. However looking at the map underscores several things to me.

a: your statement that this is the real war seems in no way unreasonable to me. Huff and puff as they might about pipelines through Israel and other places the straight of Hormuz is a key economic and military choke point.

b: As has been the trend in my mind ever since participating in this thread China seems to be poised to be the number 2 power threatening our number 1 position. They hold a lot of trump cards.

c: Russians ability to remain a big player will depend on their ability to develop arms and to play the diplomacy game. They have been good at both in the past but I see it more and more of an uphill battle. Putins inability to show up at key pipeline deals due to assasination attempts is a big sign of weakness to me. Interesting thought to think of the Russians 20 years from now in the shadow of the Chinese as Canada is in our shadow.

d: The India Russian joint military exercises with nuke subs was not only a message to the U.S. but also a signal to China.

e: I wonder how much a cozy relationship with Pakistan could ease Chinas dependence on the straights of Malacca.

F: I wonder more and more how much the Bush administration is like the Reagan camp. The Reaganoids acomplished many of their nasty ( I keep thinking of the Belsan event and all the killing by the Reaganoid rebels in Latin America ) goals behind the scenes while the Dems laughed at what a dunce Reagan was. I have never thought W was smart enough to figure out his kids tinker toy set much less run the war. I figure daddy Bush is calling most of the shots. So far however it seems to me that his plan is to make a lot of money off a war that cant be won. Time will tell if I am wrong about that. I think a lot depends on how much India,China and Russia can work together rather than fight over regional power.