Replies to post #313856 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[denmo83]

Zeev Hed re: The Dow...



http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5966285&

[Doesnt Add Up]

Three black crows on the DOW weekly



d.

[westpacific]

Zeev, add on the DOW weekly, a three bar reversal bullish pattern from two weeks ago, STO at the zero line.

Not a short setup for sure!

[JimQuinceH]

Zeev, I've got a signal for another "Change of Direction Point" for November 24th (the day before Thanksgiving). There are some cycle lows due in that timeframe, so that may be the area of a market low, although we may find out later, that it is a high.

One thing, for sure: We Will Know In The Fullness of Time

Jim

[Justa Werkenstiff]

Z: Re: "Have you looked at the Dow 5 days RSI? 14.3, even the five weeks moving average is at an extreme oversold of 25. The Dow is making a triple bottom here, and the Naz is not even testing the August lows of 1750, it even did not manage to take out the 10/14-15 low at 1900. The $ndx is even stronger."

One possibility is to consider the following. The last time the Nasdaq 100 made a 30-day new high while the DJIA was making a 30-day new low was March 7, 2000. Yes, the Dow was cratering back at the Nasdaq bubble top. And then the Dow rallied into an April top while the Nasdaq cratered into its April bottom.

[was Steve]

no doubt about it the dow has been hit hard and much harder than the nas or the other broader indexes. even after todays big nas pullback, the dow was down 297 points the last two weeks while the ndx was up 7 points. this divergence has certainly added to my lack of longer term clarity. on three separated days (wed-fri) i attempted to play long dow or dow type sectors and short ndx plays via profunds. this was net profitable, but only after an extremely frustrating day on thursday where i had almost 80% longs and 20% shorts and lost money on a day the nas went up large.

the way i am playing next week is similar as i think we have some more red on monday at least in techs but will look like a consolidation day by the close if im right. im heavily tilted to the pharmaceuticals for monday and looking for a sign of life there. i am counting on my thoughts that the indexes wont be allowed to tank the week before the election and especially not the dow as da masses do tend to follow that since they are bombarded with 10k articles all the time.

the new highs and lows have are pretty neutral. i grade each around 3 pm every day as one of my inputs into my allocation for the following days exposure.

something definitely isnt what it seems. if only i could put my finger on it.


i bit the bullet and went out 100% long after being in a hedged position of 13% long for thursdays. that meant that i sold my 43% of accounts that were short and moved those proceeds to the long side. as i trade funds i dont have the luxury of deploying the funds intraday so if i think we are close to a turn, i live with some potential drawdown first

[mjk]

The dow just tagged its 400sma for the first time Friday...during the 90's, this was a great place to go long. Since I think we're still in the cyclical bull, I think we'll get a similar outcome this time. As I've been saying for a few weeks, I still think we could drop as low as 9625-9650, the area of the 200 week avgs, but I'd expect a decent reversal from there. Perhaps we get that early monday. The worst cases of the 400sma breaking were end of 94 and 98, where we spent weeks below instead of days, and the resulting rallies were monsters. IMO, the longer we stay down here, for instance, if we haven't taken out the nas 2153 high by dec, the better 05 becomes. I've been thinking 2350-2400 by Jan-Feb, then correct hard into Spring. If we continue to drag down here until dec or so, then take off would be in Jan-Feb, and we'd basically get a repeat of 03, straight up into fall 05, probably towards 2500. All JMO.

[skono4]

You'd think that with such a large drop in the indices, the new highs will contract and new low expand, but they barely budged and new highs counts is greater than new lows on both NYSE and Naz. Such divergences indicate to me that something is not as it seems....
*****************************************

http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?IDU,TLT,ICF,NUC,GIM,NVR,xlf/B/L14

I see alot of new highs in "stocks" that are actually a bet AGAINST stocks. ETFs that track international bonds, municiple bonds, income funds, real estate, commodities and commodity-related issues are a sign that money is moving OUT of equities.....no? To what degree is this traditional indicator negated by the influx of these new trading vehicles?

[lemming]

Zeev,

I'm not as sophisticated as you with what I track. I tend to stick to the obvious: following the volume.

If we were seeing a reversal unfold, you would likely see volume expand significantly instead of contract.

The "big boys" are buying--not selling. When the "big boys" sell, the volume goes up as the price goes down. You can't sell millions of shares without generating some volume.

Still with you.

-David

[Gizmo]

Do you have an updated target for the Dow? The last reference I remember seeing was 12,000 in January.

[ogm]

Zeev, I think in this particular case New highs and new lows may not be very accurate predictor. Market has been on an upswing for almost a year. Even if the decline has started, many stocks have quite a way to go to new lows.

Do you think there is a chance that the recession you predict for the end of 2005 will have an early start ? and that market may start discounting it earlier ? High heating oil and gasoline prices combined with weak employment growth may be a good starting trigger.

Despite more or less OK profit season, most forward looking guidance statemnts aren't optimistic at all. So the big hope that corporations will increase hiring and pick up spending may not materialize. Why would multiples expand, if the growth rates are contracting ? Where is the Bull case ?

The only possible reason for a bounce here is a pre-elections rally, in an anticipation of after elections rally. Bu I have serious doubts that there will be a rally after the elections.

[limtex]

Did you see the comments of the MSFT CFO about their current view of business going forward?

I thought he said that it looked very good. MSFT have as good afeel as anyone for global business.

L

[Dances-W-waves]

The 5 day is now 11.3.

I'm adding some stuff here...about 10% taking me to around 78% cash.....looking for a bounce to relieve that indicator.


The same ol usual suspects. <g>