Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ogm]

Zeev, I think in this particular case New highs and new lows may not be very accurate predictor. Market has been on an upswing for almost a year. Even if the decline has started, many stocks have quite a way to go to new lows.

Do you think there is a chance that the recession you predict for the end of 2005 will have an early start ? and that market may start discounting it earlier ? High heating oil and gasoline prices combined with weak employment growth may be a good starting trigger.

Despite more or less OK profit season, most forward looking guidance statemnts aren't optimistic at all. So the big hope that corporations will increase hiring and pick up spending may not materialize. Why would multiples expand, if the growth rates are contracting ? Where is the Bull case ?

The only possible reason for a bounce here is a pre-elections rally, in an anticipation of after elections rally. Bu I have serious doubts that there will be a rally after the elections.