Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mjk]

The dow just tagged its 400sma for the first time Friday...during the 90's, this was a great place to go long. Since I think we're still in the cyclical bull, I think we'll get a similar outcome this time. As I've been saying for a few weeks, I still think we could drop as low as 9625-9650, the area of the 200 week avgs, but I'd expect a decent reversal from there. Perhaps we get that early monday. The worst cases of the 400sma breaking were end of 94 and 98, where we spent weeks below instead of days, and the resulting rallies were monsters. IMO, the longer we stay down here, for instance, if we haven't taken out the nas 2153 high by dec, the better 05 becomes. I've been thinking 2350-2400 by Jan-Feb, then correct hard into Spring. If we continue to drag down here until dec or so, then take off would be in Jan-Feb, and we'd basically get a repeat of 03, straight up into fall 05, probably towards 2500. All JMO.