Your second scenario would go against the typical four year cycle. Since the economy has still a lot of imbalances in it, the bitter medicine will be taken early on if Kerry wins, if Bush wins, I am not sure if such medicine will be administered and then the drunkard like spending might add fuel. I would be looking at underpinning economic signs such as the employment, if we cannot get employment rising, then the consumer led recession I have been suggesting for the second half of 2005 would kick in and the market may start and discount it a good 6 months ahead, making the late January to February period as a potential window for a top.
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