Replies to post #77410 on Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

Copaxone / Tysabri

I don't really care about this whole Copaxone versus Tysabri feud, but let me get one thing straight. You say:

>3. Tysabri's growth rate in the US was flat QoQ. However, if you care to look below the surface and beyond the stated numbers ( a policy often suggested by our moderator), you will find reasons to POTENTIALLY explain this flat growth. Specifically, the first case of confirmed PML in the US occured in the 4Q and the first and ONLY DEATH from PML (again in the US from the same patient) occurred late the 4Q. It is reasonable to suspect that this had a big damper on script growth early in 1Q.<

So Tysabri would have sold more if it wasn't for the fact that it has a scary side effect that impacts sales? So we should discount this and pretend that sales would have compared more favorably to Copaxone had there not been PML? Should I discount the fact that my uncle has balls and pretend he's my aunt?


I think you need to let it go. Copaxone appears to be more profitable to its producer at this point and time. Period. Telling Elan that they would have sold more had there not been PML doesn't impact the real world. Important thing is that both are out there and available for patients.

[DewDiligence]

Re: Copaxone Continues to Clean Tysabri's Clock in the US Market: A rebuttal to your rebuttal

If you read the press release and the printed summary in the 1Q conf call and compare it to the year end/ 1Q conference call you will note that TEVA details the sales growth of Copaxone for the 1Q based on price and UNIT GROWTH. Those facts are missing from the recent 2Q report.

Just to be clear: Teva reports on a calendar-year basis—1Q09 is the most recently reported quarter and 2Q09 is the quarter in progress now.

…Teva increased Copaxone's price by 10% effective January 3… Tysabri saw a 3% price increase…

Even with the latest price increase, Copaxone remains less expensive than Tysabri in the US market.

…Teva and Dew neglected to mention that little detail.

Actually, Teva did mention the Copaxone price increase during the Q&A portion of the CC and stated that the impetus for the price hike was the increased price of Tysabri. Under the circumstances (i.e. where the competing product is more expensive and its price is increasing), Teva would be foolish not to reply to BIIB’s price hike with a price increase of its own.

Tysabri's growth rate in the US was flat QoQ. However, if you care to look below the surface and beyond the stated numbers ( a policy often suggested by our moderator), you will find reasons to POTENTIALLY explain this flat growth.

This is exactly what you said three months ago when we were dissecting the 4Q08 numbers. How long will you continue to assert that Tysabri’s sales plateau is an aberration rather than a market reality?