<< Just to be clear: Teva reports on a calendar -year basis - 1Q09 is the most recently reported quarter and the 2Q09 is the quarter in progress now>>
Yes, I am well aware of that fact. That was a typo, and thank you for noting it. I am comparing their year end/4Q conference call with their recent 1Q conference call. The remainder of the argument remains intact.
Specifically, Teva was very detailed on the sales growth in 4Q. They delineated how much of the sales gwowth came from price increase and how much was from unit growth. THOSE FACTS ARE MISSING IN THE 1Q CALL!! They put through a 10% price increase at the very start of the quarter and grew sales by 12%. Its not too hard to see that the overwhelming factor in sales growth was price increase.
<< Teva increased Copaxone's price by 10% effective January 3.... Tysabri saw a 3% price increase..... Even with the larest price increase, Copaxone remains less expensive than Tysabri in the US market>>
I wasn't atttempting to make any agrument regarding the products relative price differences, only that Copaxone's growth during the last quarter was based almost exclusively on price increases, NOT UNIT GROWTH OR MARKET UNIT SHARE.
If I am correct, then once Teva is no longer able to implement 25-30% yearly price increases, its sales growth is going to slow dramatically. Conversely, I believe the next few quarters will see re-aceleration of Tysabri unit growth, which will drive sales growth regardless of price increases.
<< Actually, Teva did mention the Copaxone price increase during the Q &A portion of the CC and stated that the impetus for the price increase was the increased price of Tysabri>>
You are incorrect. They stated the competiton, not specifically Tysabri. Copaxone PRIMARILY competes against the other first line treatments, the interferons, and they are the ones with the additional large price increases.
<< This is exactly what you said three months ago when we were dissecting the 4Q08 numbers. How long will you continue to assert that Tysabri's sales plateau is an aberration rather than a market reality??>>
I very fair question. Time for me to make a mea culpa. I was wrong, NOT ON MY THESIS, BUT THE TIMING. Not to point fingers, but I don't beleive many on this board have a 100% spot-on record regarding timing and calls.
So let me make you a gentlemen's wager. This current quarter will show a re-aceleration of Tysabri sales. And I mean unit sales and dollar sales. My predictions are 200-225/week adds for 2Q versus approx 175/week in 1Q. Then up to 225-250/week in 3Q. By year end I predict 300+/week adds.
Oh, and let's end this 100,000 by end of 2010 nonsense. Its quite obvious that they won't make that target. But its also obvious (at least to me) that Tysabri sales will not peak in 2010, because the orals will never get to the market by that time frame. Tysabri will hit 100,000 by the 2011-2-12 time frame. IMO
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