Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

Copaxone / Tysabri

I don't really care about this whole Copaxone versus Tysabri feud, but let me get one thing straight. You say:

>3. Tysabri's growth rate in the US was flat QoQ. However, if you care to look below the surface and beyond the stated numbers ( a policy often suggested by our moderator), you will find reasons to POTENTIALLY explain this flat growth. Specifically, the first case of confirmed PML in the US occured in the 4Q and the first and ONLY DEATH from PML (again in the US from the same patient) occurred late the 4Q. It is reasonable to suspect that this had a big damper on script growth early in 1Q.<

So Tysabri would have sold more if it wasn't for the fact that it has a scary side effect that impacts sales? So we should discount this and pretend that sales would have compared more favorably to Copaxone had there not been PML? Should I discount the fact that my uncle has balls and pretend he's my aunt?


I think you need to let it go. Copaxone appears to be more profitable to its producer at this point and time. Period. Telling Elan that they would have sold more had there not been PML doesn't impact the real world. Important thing is that both are out there and available for patients.