Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Copaxone Continues to Clean Tysabri's Clock in the US Market: A rebuttal to your rebuttal

If you read the press release and the printed summary in the 1Q conf call and compare it to the year end/ 1Q conference call you will note that TEVA details the sales growth of Copaxone for the 1Q based on price and UNIT GROWTH. Those facts are missing from the recent 2Q report.

Just to be clear: Teva reports on a calendar-year basis—1Q09 is the most recently reported quarter and 2Q09 is the quarter in progress now.

…Teva increased Copaxone's price by 10% effective January 3… Tysabri saw a 3% price increase…

Even with the latest price increase, Copaxone remains less expensive than Tysabri in the US market.

…Teva and Dew neglected to mention that little detail.

Actually, Teva did mention the Copaxone price increase during the Q&A portion of the CC and stated that the impetus for the price hike was the increased price of Tysabri. Under the circumstances (i.e. where the competing product is more expensive and its price is increasing), Teva would be foolish not to reply to BIIB’s price hike with a price increase of its own.

Tysabri's growth rate in the US was flat QoQ. However, if you care to look below the surface and beyond the stated numbers ( a policy often suggested by our moderator), you will find reasons to POTENTIALLY explain this flat growth.

This is exactly what you said three months ago when we were dissecting the 4Q08 numbers. How long will you continue to assert that Tysabri’s sales plateau is an aberration rather than a market reality?