Replies to post #73881 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: VRTX/ViroChem

VRTX is really advertising the potency of VCH-222, but the caveat of course is that it is very early stage and has only been tested up to 3 days of dosing.

[rkrw]

vrtx. They didn't pay a 3rd tier price.

[DewDiligence]

Re: VRTX IDIX ANDS / non-nuke polymerase inhibitors

VRTX is playing is cards close to the vest on the acquired molecules, but on today’s CC Kurt Graves let on that VCH-222, the lead ViroChem compound, binds to the “thumb” site on the HCV polymerase. This distinguishes VCH-222 from ANA598 and IDX375, which bind to the “palm” site.

[DewDiligence]

VRTX just started a second 3-day VCH-222 phase-1 monotherapy study in 32 treatment-naïve genotype-1 patients. VRTX’s CMO said on today’s CC that the previous 3-day VCH-222 study that VRTX touted as the main impetus for the ViroChem acquisition (#msg-36022752) contained only 5 patients!

Today’s CC made it crystal clear that VCH-222 is VRTX’s lead polymerase inhibitor; VCH-759, although further advanced than VCH-222, has been relegated to backup status and will be pursued only if VCH-222 falters.

Today’s PR (including the 1Q09 financial results):
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Vertex-Pharmaceuticals-bw-14949364.html

[DewDiligence]

More VRTX CC notes (i.e. other than the tidbit about Graves' job):

1. Other than scheduling a webcast from AASLD, VRTX is giving no indication one way or the other about JNJ’s C208 study that tested BID vs TID Telaprevir. Interim results were reported at last year’s AASLD: #msg-33270634. Several analysts on the 3Q09 CC tried to get executives to offer a hint, but no dice. I expect to see a sell-off next week if either: a) the BID SVR rate is more than ~700 basis points lower than the TID SVR rate; or b) some kind of safety/tolerability problem shows up with BID dosing.

2. It’s reasonable to infer that the second-gen protease inhibitors, VX-813 and VX-985 are effectively dead. VRTX has said almost nothing about these compounds since announcing them in Feb 2008 (#msg-26729804) other than mentioning their existence as an afterthought in the Mar 2009 PR announcing the acquisition of ViroChem (#msg-36022752). Moreover, VX-813 and VX-985 do not appear on the 3Q09 CC slide showing VRTX’s pipeline, and management said nothing about them on the CC until an analyst (Steve Harr of MS) asked about them.

Comments?