Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

More VRTX CC notes (i.e. other than the tidbit about Graves' job):

1. Other than scheduling a webcast from AASLD, VRTX is giving no indication one way or the other about JNJ’s C208 study that tested BID vs TID Telaprevir. Interim results were reported at last year’s AASLD: #msg-33270634. Several analysts on the 3Q09 CC tried to get executives to offer a hint, but no dice. I expect to see a sell-off next week if either: a) the BID SVR rate is more than ~700 basis points lower than the TID SVR rate; or b) some kind of safety/tolerability problem shows up with BID dosing.

2. It’s reasonable to infer that the second-gen protease inhibitors, VX-813 and VX-985 are effectively dead. VRTX has said almost nothing about these compounds since announcing them in Feb 2008 (#msg-26729804) other than mentioning their existence as an afterthought in the Mar 2009 PR announcing the acquisition of ViroChem (#msg-36022752). Moreover, VX-813 and VX-985 do not appear on the 3Q09 CC slide showing VRTX’s pipeline, and management said nothing about them on the CC until an analyst (Steve Harr of MS) asked about them.

Comments?