Dew, the last update I remember to your “HCV: Most Likely to Succeed“ list came after the 9-21-07 MAXY-ALPHA hold announcement. Given VRTX’s problems with Telaprevir (see below), are you going to issue an update? No rush – when you have time…
NEW YORK (AP), 1-3-08: Shares of Vertex Pharm., which traded at 2-year lows in recent days, slid in Thursday morning trading after a Wachovia analyst downgraded the stock, saying new tests may delay the launch of Hepatitis C drug candidate telaprevir. George Farmer said recent trials have been flawed, and as a result, Vertex will have to conduct new trials to find the most effective doses of telaprevir. That could push the drug's launch back 2 years to 2012, he said, hurting sales by allowing competing drugs, like Schering-Plough Corp.'s boceprevir, to reach the market first. Farmer lowered his rating to "Underperform," or "Sell,"… He said recent trial results indicate Vertex should run more midstage trials, or perform a late-stage trial with patients receiving treatment for up to 48 weeks… Vertex reported midstage results from a telaprevir trial in November. Dropout rates were high, and analysts were concerned by the drug's side effects, which included fatigue, rash, headache and nausea. "We believe the PROVE trial dropout rates support further Phase II dose exploration before justifying Phase III advancement," Farmer said. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080103/vertex_pharma_out_of_the_gate.html?.v=1
= = = = = = = = = Posted by: DewDiligence 9-22-07 BioValues #52703: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=23085478 HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO) In descending order of likelihood of success: 1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ in phase-2). 2. The enhanced interferons: Albuferon (NVS/HGSI in phase-3) and Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex in phase-2). I’m excluding Maxy-alpha from MAXY, which is now on hold, and ifn-lambda from ZGEN, which is an altogether different animal. 3. The “other” protease inhibitors: Boceprevir (SGP in phase-2) and ITMN-191 (Roche/ITMN in phase-1). 4. Various early-stage compounds from GILD (alone), GILD/ACHN, Roche/VRUS, Medivir/Tibotec, and IDIX. JMHO, FWIW
= = = = = = = = = = Posted by: DewDiligence 8/11/07 BioValues #50913: HCV: Most Likely to Succeed In descending order of likelihood of success (IMO): 1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ in ph.2). 2. The various enhanced interferons: Albuferon (NVS/HGSI in ph.3), Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex in preclinical), and Maxy-Alpha (Roche/MAXY in preclinical). 3. The protease inhibitors from Roche/ITMN and SGP. 4. Various early-stage compounds from GILD (alone), GILD/ACHN, Roche/VRUS, and IDIX. JMHO, FWIW
3. Locteron (OctoPlus /Biolex; phase-2), a long-acting interferon made in transgenic plants: #msg-24304055.
4. Various oral agents in phase-1 or phase-2 trials that use an established MoA. These include TMC435350 (Medivir/JNJ, entering phase-2): #msg-24754963; R7128 (VRUS/Roche; phase-1b): #msg-25785397; ITMN-191/R7227 (ITMN/Roche; phase 1b):#msg-25786271; and R1626 (Roche; phase-2): #msg-24230355.
5. The “other” interferons: Albuferon (NVS/HGSI; phase-3): #msg-26199740; and ifn-Lambda (ZGEN; phase-1): #msg-16610804. (I’m excluding MAXY’s Maxy-alpha, which has been on life support since Roche dropped the program: #msg-24801678.)
6. Miscellaneous very-early-stage compounds that use an established MoA; e.g. IDX184 from IDIX: #msg-25802238, #msg-25836105.
7. GS9190 (GILD; phase-1), which has caused QT-prolongation: #msg-24268443.
8. Miscellaneous early-stage compounds that use novel MoA’s; e.g. Sirna-034, now owned by MRK: #msg-12665661.
9. HCV-796 (VPHM/WYE), which is probably dead due to liver toxicity: #msg-21978725.
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