Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO)

[Updated extensively based on new data; added hyperlinks.]


In descending order of likelihood of success:

1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ; soon to enter phase-3): #msg-26228377.

2. Boceprevir (SGP; phase-2): #msg-23788779.

3. Locteron (OctoPlus /Biolex; phase-2), a long-acting interferon made in transgenic plants: #msg-24304055.

4. Various oral agents in phase-1 or phase-2 trials that use an established MoA. These include TMC435350 (Medivir/JNJ, entering phase-2): #msg-24754963; R7128 (VRUS/Roche; phase-1b): #msg-25785397; ITMN-191/R7227 (ITMN/Roche; phase 1b):#msg-25786271; and R1626 (Roche; phase-2): #msg-24230355.

5. The “other” interferons: Albuferon (NVS/HGSI; phase-3): #msg-26199740; and ifn-Lambda (ZGEN; phase-1): #msg-16610804. (I’m excluding MAXY’s Maxy-alpha, which has been on life support since Roche dropped the program: #msg-24801678.)

6. Miscellaneous very-early-stage compounds that use an established MoA; e.g. IDX184 from IDIX: #msg-25802238, #msg-25836105.

7. GS9190 (GILD; phase-1), which has caused QT-prolongation: #msg-24268443.

8. Miscellaneous early-stage compounds that use novel MoA’s; e.g. Sirna-034, now owned by MRK: #msg-12665661.

9. HCV-796 (VPHM/WYE), which is probably dead due to liver toxicity: #msg-21978725.

JMHO, FWIW