Replies to post #58103 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

nice update - thanks
i might add FLML's controlled release interferon to the list

[tinkershaw]

Dew,

Thanks for the update. No, I still think your way off on the FT article and its source. Does not matter much however as the share price sold off regardless. But I do appreciate your knowledge and willingness to share.

Tinker

[y3maxx]

""HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO)""

posted by bl1376...

""At the very least, if ZGEN shows in Phase 1B that interferon lambda has comparable efficacy to interferon alpha, it will have no competition has far as that type of molecule is concerned.

That's not something you can say with regard to any of those other candidates. All you have got are a lot of protease inhibitors (telaprevir, medivir, bocreprevir, etc.) competing against each other, or long-acting interferons (albueron, locteron) competing against each other. There is really nothing unique about any of these biotech companies.

There is also exclusivity with regards to IL-21, IL-17RC and the other molecules.

I can't help but notice that one of Citi's favored biotech stocks (HGSI) blows up with albuferon's safety concerns, and all you get are upgrades and words of assurance from conflicted analysts -while at the same time ZGEN gets trashed by Citi and others for entirely bogus safety concerns concerning thrombin.

HGSI has an enterprise value that is about 3 times that of ZGEN. The outlook for albuferon doesn't look that great - certainly not as good as interferon lambda. Lymphostat is almost certainly less effective on B cells than atacicept. They have no drug approved like recothrom. Yet the analysts can hardly bring themselves to say a bad word about it.""

[microcapfun]

Albuferon

HGS has been on my watch list almost forever. For what it's worth, I previously assumed a 88.5% chance Albuferon would be approved, with $1B peak worldwide sales if it was approved.

After pulmonary tox was seen at the 1200 mcg dose in Phase 3, I have changed those numbers to 60% (eventually) and $900M.

As has been discussed, 900 mcg is not so far away from 1200 mcg. Metabolism and PK variation between individuals are likely sufficient to make 900 mcg in some look like 1200 mcg (or higher) in others. Furthermore, a higher rate of shortness of breath and coughing compared to Pegasys was seen at 900 mcg in the Phase 2b trial.

Financially, HGS has increased expenses and expense guidance recently. If the Albuferon revenue stream doesn't turn on by 2010, they will likely find themselves with no cash and >$750M debt which won't convert ...

micro

[DewDiligence]

HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO)

[Added FLML’s IFN-alpha-XL per dewophile’s request.]


In descending order of likelihood of success:

1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ; soon to enter phase-3): #msg-26228377.

2. Boceprevir (SGP; phase-2): #msg-23788779.

3. Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex; phase-2), a long-acting interferon made in transgenic plants: #msg-24304055.

4. Various oral agents in phase-1 or phase-2 trials that use an established MoA. These include TMC435350 (Medivir/JNJ; entering phase-2): #msg-24754963; R7128 (VRUS/Roche; phase-1b): #msg-25785397; ITMN-191/R7227 (ITMN/Roche; phase 1b): #msg-25786271; and R1626 (Roche; phase-2): #msg-24230355.

5. The “other” interferons: Albuferon (HGSI/NVS; dose reduced in phase-3): #msg-26199740; IFN-alpha-XL (FLML; phase-1): #msg-24008801; and IFN-Lambda (ZGEN; phase-1): #msg-16610804. I’m excluding MAXY’s Maxy-alpha, which has been on life support since Roche dropped the program: #msg-24801678.

6. Miscellaneous very-early-stage compounds that use an established MoA; e.g. IDX184 from IDIX: #msg-25802238, #msg-25836105.

7. GS9190 (GILD; phase-1), which has caused QT-prolongation: #msg-24268443.

8. Miscellaneous early-stage compounds that use novel MoA’s; e.g. Sirna-034, now owned by MRK: #msg-12665661.

9. HCV-796 (VPHM/WYE), which is probably dead due to liver toxicity: #msg-21978725.

JMHO, FWIW

[FreeNorth]

Gosh, Dew, how can your list be complete without mentioning PPHM's candidate at position last+1?

TN

[go seek]

Achillion... HCV?

http://www.achillion.com/main.aspx?pn=Ns4a&fl=l

[genisi]

You don't think much of ACHM and GILD new replicase inhibitor because the lead one was halted after nephrotoxicity? I think the new one will enter into the clinic in mid 08.
ACHM also has an HCV protease inhibitor in preclinical that has produced low-single-digit nano-molar activity in the replicon assay.