Replies to post #823593 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[sage007]

So, NWBO has the stock ownership ledger that has the names of the people and quantities they own. Now, wouldn’t it be a simple exercise to tally up the shares versus the official outstanding shares and bring that to the SEC’s attention?, start making noise in the media about it ? It doesn’t make sense why NWBO would remain quiet about it for so long. BTW, I like the way you have laid out the numbers. That makes sense.

[Chiugray]

Continuing.
Test of intuition:
Based on my previous post, the 3 cycles of mkt cap suppression:
- Cycle 1 (2015-17): $1.0B to $0.03B ($0.97B erased)
- Cycle 2 (2020-22): $1.4B to $0.30B ($1.10B erased)
- Cycle 3 (2022-26): $1.0B to $0.30B ($0.70B erased)
- Total mkt cap erased $2.77B

What would NWBO’s market cap be today if there were no suppression, strictly math basis?
A. $0.3B (current)
B. $3.0B
C. $4.1B
D. $5.8B
E. $8.3B

(Market manipulators are relying on your intuition to be wrong.)
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The Math
In a functional market, value is “sticky”. De-risking events and major catalysts build a floor rather than a temporary spike. For a “unicorn company” with a potential “holy grail” of cancer therapy (vaccine qualities), then there would be an additional premium, but that is not factored in here.

1. Baseline organic mkt cap growth across cycles = $2.07B
- Cycle 1: $1.0B (starting point)
- Cycle 2: $1.37B ($1.4B - $0.03B)
- Cycle 3: $0.7B ($1.0B - $0.3B)

2. Reversed the suppression: $2.77B (in face of Buyers, “phantom” naked shares were sold at lower and lower prices)

3. If Buyers were forced to pay “higher and higher” instead of “lower and lower” (price discovery): $2.77B

4. Starting price (original cycle 1 peak): $1.00B

5. Revised Ending Market Cap: $8.61B


The M&A Check Figure (Peer Reality)
Is $8.3B "too high"? History says no:
- 2017: Kite Pharma, $12B (Pivotal Phase 2, 101 patients. Cancer label eventually: limited to only DLBCL cancer, a subset, initially as a 3rd in line DLBCL therapy)
- 2018: Juno Therapeutics, $9B (mid-stage clinical)
- 2018: AveXis, $9B (Phase 1 study of 15 infants)
- 2019: Loxo Oncology, $8B (drug FDA approved 2 mos prior to acquisition)
- 2020: Forty Seven, $5B (mid-stage clinical trial)

Summary
The math points to $8.3B. The market currently shows $0.3B. That gap is the short squeeze potential using data “pre-approval” and without a premium for FOMO (that was removed with suppression). Of course all is hypothetical and IMHO.