NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

I am adding a second check figure to ballpark that the Total Short position is likely “much greater” than 1B shares. I call this, The “Missing Valuation” Check Figure.

The Data: 3 Catalyst and Suppression Cycles
- Cycle 1 (2015-17): NWBO hit $1B mkt cap (Woodford Investment). Value down to $0.03B. ($0.9B erased)

- Cycle 2 (2020-22): NWBO hits $1.4B mkt cap (Phase 3 Data Lock/Sawston licensing) Value taken down to $0.3B. ($1.1B erased)

- Cycle 3 (2022-26): NWBO hits $1.0B mkt cap (JAMA Publication/MAA filing) Value take down to $0.3B. ($0.7B erased)

The Logic:
In a functional market, value is "sticky" after major de-risking events (like a successful Phase 3 peer-reviewed in JAMA). For NWBO, that value was "taken down" every time they reached important milestones.

The Math:
- Total value erased: $2.7B
- Est. average price (2020-26): $0.75/share
- Implied share displacement: $2.7B divided by $0.75 = 3.6B shares

Key concept:
- Catalysts creates spikes in buying demand
- “Absorb 3.6B shares” means Buyers bought 3.6B shares,
- But instead of buying at higher prices (price discovery during catalyst),
- The allegedly market manipulators created “phantom” naked shares and sold them to these Buyers at lower and lower prices.

Summary
To erase $2.7B in fundamental value during a period of clinical success, the market would have had to "absorb" the equivalent of 3.6B shares of selling pressure. These shorted shares would also hypothetically mean 3.6B shares were added to the cumulative Total Short Position.


References:
I laid out a summary of NWBO’s key events and valuations in this post.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=177490927