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marzan

04/15/26 10:22 PM

#447338 RE: TastyTheElf #447335

Big thanks to TastyTheElf for taking the time to dig into the trial protocol and share this—really appreciate the effort. 🙏

Just to add a bit of clarity for everyone:

The Hazard Ratio (HR) numbers being discussed are based on real data from earlier studies. The ~0.694 (headline) and the ~0.35 (adjusted) come from Phase II results and analyses referenced in the protocol. The lower adjusted HR reflects corrections for differences in patient populations, which can make the treatment effect appear stronger.

The p-value mentioned (like 0.00000000000001) is not an actual reported number. It’s a hypothetical example, meant to show what the statistics might look like if the trial delivers a very strong result—such as an HR around 0.35.

In simple terms:
• HR shows how strong the treatment effect is
• p-value shows how confident we are that the result isn’t due to chance

So when you see a very low HR paired with an extremely tiny p-value, it’s just illustrating that a strong effect would likely come with very high statistical confidence.

Really interesting angle to look at—thanks again, TTE.
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SovereignNinja5

04/16/26 7:43 AM

#447339 RE: TastyTheElf #447335

Elf, welcome to the party. But let me give you another direction. Remember our discussions on MOA, POM and SOC? 
UK Path = Rapid Introduction
Because Vazkepa is already on the market, positive peer-reviewed data from EMT2 can trigger fast NHS adoption via the Medicines Repurposing Programme (exactly what happened with anastrozole). No new full approval cycle is needed — MHRA/NICE can move in months.
US Path = Off-Label Today + sNDA Tomorrow
•  Physicians can prescribe branded Vascepa (or generic) off-label today under the practice of medicine. FDA does not regulate the practice of medicine.
•  Amarin can file a targeted sNDA (505(b)(2) pathway) using EMT2 data bridged to the existing Vascepa NDA and REDUCE-IT safety database. No new large sponsor-led trial is required.
•  The new indication would add 3 years of clinical-investigation exclusivity.
LREtEPA Patent Synergy
The new lymphatic-optimized formulation (patent 18/472,875, expected issuance mid-late 2026) can be implemented in parallel via its own sNDA. Once approved, LREtEPA gets composition-of-matter protection to 2045 and can carry the oncology indication as well. This creates layered exclusivity that generics cannot easily bypass.
Bottom Line
•  Patient pool is modest (8–12k new US patients/year), but high-margin and high-need.
•  This is not a massive revenue driver by itself, but it proves Vascepa has multiple high-value repurposing paths beyond CV.
•  Combined with the REDUCE-IT hospitalizations data, fibrate displacement modeling ($500M–$1.5B opportunity), and PBM transparency reforms, it materially de-risks the platform.
This is exactly the type of low-cost, high-upside catalyst that makes the current valuation look absurd and strengthens the Barclays strategic review. Bullish for anyone who understands repurposing + IP layering.
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JRoon71

04/16/26 8:25 AM

#447340 RE: TastyTheElf #447335

FYI, from GeorgeCastanza on ST:

Hopefully we see results by mid to late summer.

the trial organizer said that they will have the results analyzed by the end of May. They hope to have the publication out in June/July time frame. They are going to present the results at the ESMO Congress in October.