Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[TastyTheElf]

Regarding the cancer trial which should be reading out soon...

I decided to read the published protocol for the trial, and stumbled across this interesting tidbit:

The HR for PFS in the phase II EMT study was 0.694,but the EPA arm, by chance, recruited a higher proportion of patients with poor prognostic features, and a multivariate analysis including these factors actually yielded an HR of 0.35 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.79) lending credence to the assumed more conservative HR of 0.7 chosen for this larger phase three study, given that the magnitude of benefit observed in phase two studies is often greater than that observed in the phase III counterpart.

What this is saying is that, adjusted for the actual trial population randomized, Vascepa produced results more or less twice as good as the headline numbers.

Somebody smarter than me please opine on what happens if the HR for PFS in this trial comes out at 0.35 (p-value = .00000000000001).