Replies to post #4762 on Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[edcoolidge]

Thanks. "Analysis" belongs in quotes. They backed into the "analysis" from their PT.

[iwfal]

we are lowering our market share assumptions for the drug in the aesthetic setting to 10% from 15% (in 2030),

It’s genuinely funny watching completely insane justifications by Major brokerages - and knowing they actually move the market.

Comment: it’s probably possible to find such justifications fairly easily if you’re just willing to spend the time, and then arbitrage them. But it’d be boring.

[vinmantoo]

mouton,

Thanks. I am confused a bit about CD. What percentage of the marker are the saying RVNC will get in that indication? As far as aesthetics, can they really believe sales of filler and Daxxify are linked in terms of percentage of the market? Shouldn't each be modeled separately?

As far as stock price, I bought some last week at the "bargain" price of $10.75. The stock is reacting today as if the FDA just failed to approve Daxxify in any indication. Quite amazing.

[DewDiligence]

The Morgan Stanley analyst is blatantly dishonest. In the excerpt you posted, the analyst says Daxxify’s probability of success (”PoS”) in CD was raised from 80% to 100% following FDA approval in this indication. However, prior to FDA approval this analyst had modeled the probably of success in CD at 70% (not 80%), a figure that I ridiculed in #msg-170173399.