Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[DewDiligence]

For cervical dystonia, [Morgan Stanley] project “2025/2030 unadjusted sales of $22mn/$39mn and apply a 70% [probability of success]”…

Hahahaha! So MS is saying there’s a 30% chance the FDA rejects the Daxxify sBLA in cervical dystonia—even though the phase-3 trial in CD was unambiguously positive and there is no additional manufacturing or formulation development required for the new indication. Ludicrous!

The $22M and $39M figures (above) are just plain silly. Maybe MS does not realize that the Daxxify dose for CD is more than three times the dose for glabellar lines, which means each CD patient produces more than three times as much Daxxify revenue as each GL patient.