Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[mouton29]

If anyone cares, the Morgan Stanley change to the target price is based on this analysis:

Following the company’s investor day (LINK) and a new pricing/marketing strategy for Daxxify, we are lowering our market share assumptions for the drug in the aesthetic setting to 10% from 15% (in 2030), resulting in $45-$360mn lower revenues in 2024+. The 10% is on par with the company’s current market share of RHA filler and in our view appropriate given execution questions on the Daxxify launch. In addition following Daxxify's approval for cervical dystonia (LINK) we raise the POS in our model to 100% from 80% . As a result, our DCF-based price target goes to $12 from $25 and includes $964mn (vs. $1.2bn prior) in risk-adjusted revenue in 2030. We derive our price target from a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis using a 10% discount rate and 2% terminal growth (both unchanged).