Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[alertmeipp]

Well at least they didn’t cancel their plans lol

[DewDiligence]

Not sure if that makes me feel any better.

Unlike open-market purchases, insider buys from a company's ESPP can be made even when the insiders have material non-public information.

Now that 2Q24 is in the books, the insider-trading window that applies to open-market transactions is closed until RVNC reports 2Q24 financial results in early August.

[randychub]

Thank you! Not sure if that makes me feel any better

[alertmeipp]

Very unusual indeed
Really hard to understand what’s going on

Are competing companies really messing around?

[DewDiligence]

The insider buys reported today are limited in size because they are from the company’s Employee Stock Purchase Plan—see the footnotes:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1479290/000147929024000104/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1719956853.xml

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1479290/000147929024000103/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1719956817.xml

[randychub]

Insider buys of 2k. lol

[rock mountain]

... market cap. of less than 1 x annual sales. For a pharma company with a block-buster in the making - unheard off.

[Jab44]

How much further can this stock drip down.? There are 5-6 weeks before the second quarter earnings announcement and if we get zero news between now and then could we see $2 by the first of August ?

[go seek]

RVNC should move higher as we approach 2nd Qtr earnings report in August. Looking for 1st Daxxi approval in China, update on CD path in US and significant progress in aesthetics sales.

[alertmeipp]

I too suspect some bigger firms will try to buy out RVNC during this uncertain period. But the gap between current EV and actual value will be too great for RVNC and the acquirer to strike a deal I would think.

A partnership with significant upfront cash and tiered royalty would be more likely I suspect. I hope that's why no insider buying yet.

[Emannow]

thetechnologyofbeauty on Youtube hosted by Grant Stevens, MD
NEXT TUESDAY July 2, 2024, on The Technology of Beauty… we welcome Erica Jordan of Revance to the show.

As the Chief Commercial Officer at Revance, Erica is responsible for developing and executing growth strategies for the aesthetics and therapeutics markets. She has over 20 years of experience in commercial and general management in the med-tech, biotech, and dental industries, working for leading companies including GE, Siemens, Philips, and Envista.

[biotech_researcher]

Show me three quarters of taking consistently growing market share and this one will be under someone else’s umbrella.

[Jlinvest01]

This is 8x current valuation, excluding debt. Times change, Last raise at 6$ caused 20% dilution. At some point you need to accept the path of least resistance. Daxy needs a daddy with strong arms, that can play the distance.

[Jlinvest01]

For therapeutics, the off-label payers approval is quite high. This is very unusual and all based on cost savings, as a lot of them see no differentiation vs botox.
Daxy is clearly differentiated, and its cheaper. Once they realize this, more and more barriers should be lifted.

[randychub]

Can't see the board not agreeing with anything near 20 per share., which will still be far below long term fair value.

If it is far below fair value I would hope they are smart enough to say no. I agree with the rest of that post. Just sit back and wait.

[Jlinvest01]

Interest rates are the same forall. Higher cost of refinancing shouldn't matter if trajectory to break even is clear. Company is trading at less than 1x forward sales and about 1x this year sales. Whether they pull break even in 25 or 26 shouldn't matter. Daxy will be the best Bont out there for at least another decade. Sooner or later, potential will be realized, and considering current valuation, i see them very vulnerable for a +2b take over. Can't see the board not agreeing with anything near 20 per share., which will still be far below long term fair value.

[iwfal]

So this drive down on bancrupty concerns and nog being able to refinance the debt, is one of the dumbest, i've ever seen.

Missing the point that interest rates are much higher now than original Revance plans. Similar problem is true of financing via stocks given that share price is very low. This is happening all over in biotech. Biotech management everywhere developed norms that are no longer applicable and i can name a lot of biotech companies with ‘We are in big trouble’ problems.

[alertmeipp]

Agree, only a few expect they can close the gap by 2025, zero trust

As many said, most are in show me the money mode

[Jlinvest01]

At current val, all hinges on company closing the gap to profitability asap. Worst case, management can't meet the break-even guidance by Q4 '25 as promised. But that gap will most certainly have narrowed very significantly. So this drive down on bancrupty concerns and nog being able to refinance the debt, is one of the dumbest, i've ever seen.

[alertmeipp]

Another low volume take down day

Insiders need to step up to put confidence back

Or we will have wait for sales numbers to come in nicely

[vinmantoo]

We need about 10 days in a row of that kind of increase.

[go seek]

👍 RVNC up 10% today… Yeah!

[10nisman]

Sure….obviously those of us that actually purchase product will get end of quarter sales pitches. It felt a little different this Q…..Allergan reached out more than usual. What that means….I’m not exactly sure. But I have some guesses.

SMH. Obviously, sales rep's are going to be calling potential customers vs. pitching their long-lost cousin. But, very telling you felt the need to state the obvious again.

BTW, why waste the energy posting your prior message vs. just noting the above?

Got messages from most of the toxin reps the past couple hours. Trying to close out the quarter strong :)

[boraborak38]

Sure….obviously those of us that actually purchase product will get end of quarter sales pitches. It felt a little different this Q…..Allergan reached out more than usual. What that means….I’m not exactly sure. But I have some guesses.

[alertmeipp]

I think we all got that Foley made some mistakes - the clear one for me was OPUL but at least he used shares for that deal.

But the question now is

Does $RVNC worth $500mm with all those mistakes Foley made PLUS Foley stays as the CEO for the foreseeable future?

If not, sell out and move on.
If yes, maybe add some or hold the bag for a little longer.

For me, I am holding.

[DewDiligence]

[OT]—By the way Mitch Gold bounced back and sold the next company he was leading for 5-6 billion dollars.

I saw that (#msg-174214641).

[Jab44]

Unfortunately with a silent Board of Directors, an investors relations group that disappeared, and CEO that has made MANY mistake Long time shareholders have grown frustrated. Perhaps dew you remember the many back and forths regarding Dendreon
and Mitch Gold.. The circumstances may have been different but the passion of the shareholders is much the same.
Foley has dug himself a huge hole and all the shareholders are hoping he finds a way out before the time runs out.
By the way Mitch Gold bounced back and sold the next company he was leading for 5-6 billion dollars.

[Emannow]

Dew, if you check my past posts, i wrote about the Premium Pricing Strategy and why it was a failure. I wrote about the No Advertising Price Policy and why if was a failure. I wrote about the Marketing Team and why they were a failure. Foley has made at least half a dozen terrible leadership decisions in 18 months...seems like he makes one every 3 to 4 months....I would LOVE to see Foley turn RVNC Around...probably more $$$$ than you.

I have been involved with Aesthetic Marketing for over 20 years...Foley just keeps making bad decisions and then has to make more adjustments to try and fix the issues caused by the bad decisions.

Everyone you talk to, says the same thing about RVNC...Great products, Terrible Leadership!!!

[vinmantoo]

Thanks for stating the obvious. Sales reps in every industry try to close out quarters strong.

The way many think about the skills of RVNC management, they don't urge a good close to the quarter.

I may be a fool but I increased my shares of RVNC by 15% yesterday at $2.33. The good and bad part is it didn't cost me that much money due to the low RVNC share price.

[DewDiligence]

Regarding Mark Foley, I have nothing to add to what I have previously posted. To re-iterate: Foley has made mistakes, but he has taken actions to rectify them. I don’t see any benefit to RVNC and its shareholders from replacing Foley. To the contrary, I think changing CEOs now could be disruptive and counterproductive.

[Emannow]

Mark Foley obviously never took any Executive Marketing Management Courses...Foley brought CoolSculpting to a positive cash flow with NO COMPETITION and sold it to Allergan for $2.4 Billion. Total Con Job! CoolSculpting is a total Dog! Now Foley is in a completive market with an excellent product which wins every award and the Con Man Foley and is over his head!!! Foley has no clue who the Daxi target market is and still thinks "Injectors" are the "Target Consumer".

Foley thinks if he makes the injectors more profit, they will switch their patients to Daxi...WRONG...Injectors are reseller who are at the mercy of the aesthetic patient and kiss every patients butt hoping the patient will return to them and it costs an injector money (time) to switch a patient to Daxi. Cosmetic Injectors are all about the $$$$. Why does Allergan market directly to the aesthetic patient, everyday? Injectors are 100% aware that Allergan is squeezing their net profit out of Botox but "Change" is scary and Allergan keeps whispering in their ear, that "Botox will make the "practice" more profit." Allergan knows Daxi is much more profitable to the injector and is trying to confuse the injectors with "Practice" profit....Just so you know, typically, Toxin revenue is 50% to 60% of a practice's total annual revenue....what Allergan is telling the practice is 100% false. Foley waisted hundreds of millions and now WS see liabilities as greater than assets....TROUBLE...SP has dropped weekly.

FOLEY truly needs to understand medical marketing in a mature competitive market with a product which has 3 competitive advantages and is sold through a reseller as an annuity procedure. Offer the new product with 3 competitive advantages at the same price as the current market leaders. Establish market share and sell the company to a BIG Boy who will take it to the next level!

Educate the medical patient about the 3 competitive advantage and the $$$ they will save when using Daxi versus a 3 month toxin. Injectors who want to grow their Daxi patient base should be allowed to advertise their Daxi price on the the Daxi Injector Finder...love seeing injector pages listing...Botox $14 per unit, Daxi $7 per unit....now the patient will want to try the $7 per unit product which will give them the additional 3 benefits for the same price as Botox ( 2 to 1 units).Fast, Last and the Look! Patients will never go back to Botox!!! RVNC should be encouraging every unit pricing practice to advertise their Daxi this way!

Foley is clueless!

[Emannow]

Mark Foley is Fxxxking Idiot!

He has made terrible decisions, one after another and is solely responsible for the SP and what has happened to RVNC.

Dew, do you still support Foley as your Man?

[Emannow]

Revance Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (RVNC) Short Interest
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg. Daily Share Volume Days to Cover
06/14/2024 14,352,615 1,414,819 10.144488
05/31/2024 12,763,394 2,082,760 6.128116
05/15/2024 12,490,424 2,432,279 5.135276

[iwfal]

but it's also the result of many greedy CosmeticMDs not wanting to see their customers (I call them customers not patients as these doctors are unscrupulous salespeople more than medical professionals) less often without being compensated by a higher price.

Sure. Not allowing practices to advertise was always the most insane policy and this was entirely predictable. But IIRC Revance didnt change this policy until early this year - ie substantially after the pricing change.

[edcoolidge]

I think what Mark said was true in that prices are trending down and I've definitely been seeing more practices offering Daxxify at $5-$8/unit recently. As soma2022 has informed us practices can get Daxxify at $2.75/unit if they're doing sufficient volume—which of course any self-respecting practice not run by an unscrupulous CosmeticMD should be. But in typical Foley fashion he may have overstated somewhat how close they are to price parity. Admittedly the majority of practices that advertise Daxxify on social media don't include their price so the sample size is small but it seems to be a fairly good cross-section of practices that do.

For reference the first screenshot below shows a practice with total price parity based on the amount of toxin. You get the exact same amount of toxin for the same price. (2:1 Daxxify to Botox, 3:1 Dysport to Botox unit conversation). Below that are some recent posts showing significantly higher Daxxify unit prices. Some don't show their prices for other toxins but at $15/unit it's hard to imagine Daxxify isn't considerably higher than their other toxins (Botox would have to be $30/unit for parity). Confusingly some practices advertise a flat price for any toxin as seen in the last screenshot. When that includes Dysport the practice is pretty clearly obfuscating the real units to simplify things for the customer (or to cheat them), but many don't include Dysport which makes it less clear without a phone call.

[go seek]

So Soma, if Revance hits ~ Revenue of $70M, $75M, and $85M (or thereabouts) in the next 3 quarters, the $280M revenue target for 2024 will be achieved.

[10nisman]

Got messages from most of the toxin reps the past couple hours. Trying to close out the quarter strong :)

Thanks for stating the obvious. Sales reps in every industry try to close out quarters strong.

[alertmeipp]

>> still charging a considerable premium for Daxxify over Botox (on a 2-to-1 unit basis)

You have data to back up your claim? in the recent webcast, management mentioned prices has finally come down for most practices, only some still charge premium prices as their customers willing to pay more for better product.

[boraborak38]

Got messages from most of the toxin reps the past couple hours. Trying to close out the quarter strong :)

[edcoolidge]

Another problem right now is that many if not most practices are still charging a considerable premium for Daxxify over Botox (on a 2-to-1 unit basis). Partly this is a remnant of Revance's failed premium price strategy—but it's also the result of many greedy CosmeticMDs not wanting to see their customers (I call them customers not patients as these doctors are unscrupulous salespeople more than medical professionals) less often without being compensated by a higher price. Daxxify market share will thus have to be won by better practices offering the best products to their customers at a fair price taking share from unscrupulous practices that do not.

[alertmeipp]

Yes I think too early to tell

This is like the first quarter on the re launch and people already throwing in towels

And citing bankruptcy probability

The same site says EOLS is likely to bankrupt too which to me is non sense as well

The product worth much more than the debt, worse case, I see this get sold

[boraborak38]

“The biggest challenge to hitting the sales forecast isn't the salesforce but a general softening in the industry / consumer spending…”

Disagree. Something bigger at play here. Obviously launch and pricing was terrible. But if the product was the elixir it claimed/s, it should be able to overcome slight softening. Overpromised, burned practices, and slow ramp of training injectors are a few of the problems not related to any softening in the market.

[kld2]

Maybe it's already been posted, but how do you know that RVNC Corporate management is hearing "the same information"? I mean, if they aren't hearing anything after dropping from 36 to 2, something is dearly amiss.

[iwfal]

By investing in RVNC you're investing in the Management team and all the good, bad, and ugly that comes with it. It's the fun of investing

No, suggest the “fun in investing” is making $. Investing is not like sports - where it is still fun even if your team is the Chicago Cubs.

[10nisman]

After a successful week or two, this board is back to being a pile of non-sense again.

Recent mistakes... To begin with, he had a chance to hire someone knowledgeable about the aesthetic industry after moving on from DS. Instead, he chose a new, highly incompetent CCO who, in turn, hired equally incompetent staff and an even more clueless VP of sales. He had one opportunity to improve the situation, but he managed to make it worse. As a result, reaching 280 million in sales will be a challenge with the current rate of sales force attrition..

If you don't like the way Foley / Management have been or are running the business, sell and move on. It's that simple. By investing in RVNC you're investing in the Management team and all the good, bad, and ugly that comes with it. It's the fun of investing. Foley owns 1+ million shares and has every interest in trying to maximize the share price overtime.

With respect to sales force attrition --- high performing sales reps get reward and stay, while non-performing sales reps leave. The biggest challenge to hitting the sales forecast isn't the salesforce but a general softening in the industry / consumer spending.

The RVNC going bankrupt talk is non-sense. No competent long-only institutional investor talks bankruptcy about their positions. If they want change, they can become an activist, send a letter to Foley / Board / Shareholders, highlight their major concerns and changes they want, etc. However, that's work, and a lot easier to just sell their position. You all can do the same.

With that said, RVNC could sell itself tomorrow for multiples of the current share price.

[spongepaul]

I wasn’t aware of Deming working in China. I had only read of his work TQM work in Japan..

[vinmantoo]

Shortly after the DAX approval, I warned this board not to sell allergan’s, marketing and sales team short.

I was ignored

Roy‘s praise led the perma-bulls to assume that Revance would automatically get 100% of the market.

Ian, why do you keep repeating that lie about what RVNC investors expected regarding market share? I never assumed or even dreamed that Daxxify would ever grab anything close to 100% of the market, let alone get there automatically.

You are acting as if the low share price of RNVC represents a personal triumph for you. Now if you really were so sure RVNC would be a disaster then you would have shorted it and touting it at the time you did it. You didn't so you are just some guy spouting off after the fact about how smart is was/is. Sounds kind of like a bit of insecurity to me.

[IanFromSI]

Revance did not have a quality assurance VP

It does not have one today. At least there is no executive with QA explicitly mentioned.

QA manager (low level in the company) got no support either from the manufacturer or the company.

About 40 years ago, Deming revolutionized production in China through the introduction of quality improvement. At that time north American corporations recognized that they had to get their act together or become a second class nation.

Clearly, Foley had no excuse. He should’ve known, and he should’ve provided support to his quality assurance representative, regardless of how low that person was in the company.

For those who have search, this was discussed on this thread shortly after the CRL was issued.

[spongepaul]

I believe that the skills of allergan sales team was discussed here and that it was common knowledge that they would be very effective at defending their market share.

[10nisman]

Buffet, One of the best investors in the world, won’t touch companies with incompetent management. Why in the world do people here insist on ignoring Buffet’s example?

It's Buffett, genius. What kind of "investor" cannot even spell Warren's last name correctly? SMH... Ian is back on ignore.

BTW, Buffett's famous quote regarding Management is --- "I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."