If you listen to the 2023 ASM Dr. Lebby does not talk about polymer stack or polymer plus instead highlighting polymer slot modulators. When he talks about the modulators being very tiny he is likely referring to slot as it offers the best applications based on size. He spent alot of time emphasizing speed but even more so size and power efficiency. His comparisons to silicon photonic competitors highlight the marked advatages of the slot modulator with size, power usage, speed and design options with a runway for next generations for at least the next decade. Competitor products are harder to manufacturer and are more costly to do so. They still will be sold into the market over the next few years but some may not survive to the next generation or two due to limitation in specs.
What comes first into the market, no one knows. They get closer all the time. It sounds like they are in the final testing phase to meet customer satisfaction for thermal and photostability of some manufactured devices. Again that would have to be polymer slot as that is what the customers want. They have done well so far and the testing is still ongoing as of the ASM report. No guidance was given on number of foundries. You could interpret that good or bad based on your belief of progress or bias.
As to the issue will they get to the commercialization stage more clearly soon? What is soon? We are talking months, more than likely, as PDKs at some foundries are likely done and waiting further reliability testing and customer evaluations. Some foundries are ahead of others. To assess commercial readiness
one must look at the whole picture and not a micrpscopic view that Ted often uses to look at uncertainty about something and magnifying that into something that shows the company is far from succeeding. It is better to look at things that show the need for the market to embrace what the company has, look at progress made over the past year, history of the company announcing patent acceptances while using novel manufacturing methods with partners well before that, and it could get going over the next 6-12 months possibly in a big way. There is the possibility of information on partners working on new applications of OEPs which offers a surprise facor over the next 6-12 mmonths.
Here are some reasons for commercialization occuring in the next 6-12 months.
1) 3X the speed, 10X lower power, very small size (15-30X less).
2)Data volume is now advancing at a doubling of rate every 2-4 months vs every 2-4 years previously.
Current alternatives not competiticve future options.
3) Power usage is inceasingly costly for data centers and for the grid locally with risks of outages. Climate change wants green.
4)Water use needs to decline to help cool data centers. Drought conditions has worsened and will continue based on forcasts.
5)Increasing data use needs options to pack more modulators into a transceiver package for future. Size matters.
6)Stability matters. Photostability is at 9,000 hours as of the ASM and counting. Thermal stability has looked good so far as well.
7)Third party validation with Polariton showing world record for an electro-optic plasmonic modulaor 250Ghz and 1/10th the power.
SilORiX and KIT demonstrate world record 140 Gbd PAM 4 sub volt Mach-Zender slot modulator thermanally stable.
8)Patent Moat well over 70 U.S. and worldwide patents for production of organic polymers and manufacture using foundry PDKs.
9)Complete control of manufacture of poymers with 5 series available based on application. Series 6 on the way
10))No need for foundries to upgrade to new equipment to manufacture; can be added to existing equipment.
11)Low capital structure with foundry manufacture based on license, royalties and tech transfer
12)Modulators/transceivers first out. Working with partners on other applications, still under NDAs.
13) Validation of commercialization /First commercial agreement for supply of polymer with license and increasing min. royalties
14)Increased Lab space by 70% with anticipating use for increased manufacture and development of new poymer series
15) Fully functional clean room for developing and testing new manufactured devices
16)Packaging patents including use of ALD to encapsulate and aid stability of OEP chips
17)Ability to eliminate gold box packaging.
18)Can use gold box or aluminum on electrodes.
19)Company has debt and an as needed shelf that they time as needed
20)LWLG anticipates rolling out transceivers in 2024. At ASM Dr. Lebby said "rapid adoption during the next 24-36 months.
I would add a great Board of Directors and leaders in photonics. Dr. Lebby himself is a full professor and has enough patents to his name to be included in the patent hall of fame. The 11 new hires this year says they are getting ready for some action. I was reminded, no debt and shelf in place for funding when needed.
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