Replies to post #149125 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[stoneroad]

IMO $30-35 on November 9th. $50 on the 12th.

[marzan]

dan, I thought you are a smart guy. Looks like you are smart only in money. Why Nov 11th is a binary? why the stock would go down $15?? 25% RRR is 25% RRR. This RRR comes from those CVD elements. No trial in the past gave this high RRR. So no $15 going down. Only going up here onwards.

[hamkypamky]

IMO, stock price is not going to move very much from the AHA announcement alone (short of astounding results or lots of press that drives retail buyers in droves).

This drug may well be a cardiologists dream but the market is more oriented around profits and potential. We may see a small jump but the medical stuff is probably going to fly over the IBs guys heads.

Shorter term large spikes in share price will mainly be driven (IMO of course) by a few things:
1. BO offer (if any)
2. Major investor taking a larger stake (say Berkshire buying a stake or Baker Bros increasing their holdings to 30%) to show confidence.
3. Partnership with a big name (doesn't even have to be BP, could be something like CVS taking a 5% stake etc).
4. EU announcement.

[couldbebetter]

dan, The top-line 25% was like finding a treasure chest...on Nov.11 we
finally get to see what is inside. Remember, if R-I shows a decline in
Cardio-Vascular death that is over 10% then every cardiologist on the
planet should prescribe it to their patients who meet the criteria.
With any luck we may get a much higher Cardio-Vascular mortality decline
that may be over 20%...that would be truely stunning and would result
in AMRN stock being scooped up as the major investment players begin to
understand that Vascepa is affordable, as safe as placebo, has no
negative interactions with any other medications, actually has synergistic
benefits when used with statins, and, is unique. HDGabor made his own
prediction that AMRN will trade at $25-$30 before Nov. 10 and with
good results will gain up to 50% more...and before the end of the 1st
qtr. may even trade in 3 figures. ( I think he gave that a 50% chance.)
I hope I got his numbers right...more important, I hope he gets them
right!

[HDGabor]

d-

Let's assume I am right and pps will be $25-30 before Nov 10 (for simplicity $28).

"approximately 25% relative risk reduction" is 27%: $30

Assuming that the endpoint is statistically significant, the pps on Nov 12:

- Key secondary endpoint: Composite of CV death, nonfatal MI, or nonfatal stroke: $33
Additional individual or composite endpoints (tested in order listed):
- Composite of CV death or nonfatal MI: $37
- Fatal or nonfatal MI: $40
- Nonelective coronary revascularization (defined as emergent or urgent): $42
- CV death: $50
- UA determined to be caused by myocardial ischemia by invasive/noninvasive testing and requiring emergent hospitalization: $52
- Fatal or nonfatal stroke: $55
- Total mortality: $60

[Please note: these are for Nov 12 only]

The PE RRR could be 23-24% and none of the SEs is ss (robust does not mean ss) … but I think: it isn't likely.

- - - - -

what options are you talking about? insider options should be counted at the time of an offer made, right?

The options and RSUs are (mostly) time dependent (some of them based on "event") will be vested in (e.g.) 2022 … OR … fully vested in case change of Control … but the offer itself does not mean a change of control (till it will be accepted / finalized).

Best,
G

[Biobillionair]

Dan-

I feel its either going to be $15 up or down

I'd suggest you visit the AHA Conference. R-I results are not just a cardiovascular label upgrade for a drug...the is a paradigm change for the treatment of cardiovascular disease. Top line results ALONE are enough to trigger the paradigm. However, if R-I shows a significant reduction in deaths this is more than a paradigm change...it's an exploding supernova.

More likely >$60 before the end of December.

BB