Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

d-

Let's assume I am right and pps will be $25-30 before Nov 10 (for simplicity $28).

"approximately 25% relative risk reduction" is 27%: $30

Assuming that the endpoint is statistically significant, the pps on Nov 12:

- Key secondary endpoint: Composite of CV death, nonfatal MI, or nonfatal stroke: $33
Additional individual or composite endpoints (tested in order listed):
- Composite of CV death or nonfatal MI: $37
- Fatal or nonfatal MI: $40
- Nonelective coronary revascularization (defined as emergent or urgent): $42
- CV death: $50
- UA determined to be caused by myocardial ischemia by invasive/noninvasive testing and requiring emergent hospitalization: $52
- Fatal or nonfatal stroke: $55
- Total mortality: $60

[Please note: these are for Nov 12 only]

The PE RRR could be 23-24% and none of the SEs is ss (robust does not mean ss) … but I think: it isn't likely.

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what options are you talking about? insider options should be counted at the time of an offer made, right?

The options and RSUs are (mostly) time dependent (some of them based on "event") will be vested in (e.g.) 2022 … OR … fully vested in case change of Control … but the offer itself does not mean a change of control (till it will be accepted / finalized).

Best,
G