Replies to post #183214 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Ultraz2]

I so agree, but what happens when we go to $3, RS 1:10?...I hope not until all the value in the stock is realized with direct and we uplist.

[marzan]

Thanks senti. All 10 points are facts today and will be facts for ever. Your post should be a stickie.

[sharpie510]

Senti, I don't think the 108 alive are all from the last 159 patients (the ones that had not reached 36 months in the trial as of March 2017). Where in the blended publication did it state that? There must be quite a number of still alive long term survivors from the group enrolled before July 2014. In fact, the publication stated that 182 ITT patients had a surgery date ≥ 36 months at time of data collection, so the last group should only be 149 patients that hadn't yet made it to 36 months from surgery.

It's true that 44 of 331 or 13.3% have lived ≥ 36 months prior to the data collection, but this figure does not factor in the 149 that weren't yet at 36 months and some will likely make it into this subgroup. The publication makes that clear since it states "Among the ITT patients with a surgery date ≥ 36 months prior to the data collection (n = 182), 24.2% (n = 44) have lived ≥ 36 months and their KM-derived mOS estimate is 88.2 months."

So, if the last 149 perform like the prior 182, then would it be accurate to state that 24.2% of the 149 will be expected to live ≥ 36 months? If so, then that would add another 36 patients into that group (149 * 24.2% = 36). This means one might expect to see 80 of 331 patients living ≥ 36 months. That number might be even higher by as many as 4 more, 84 of 331 if it is true the last group was more heavily control vs. placebo. Rough estimate to factor the 17 "missing" placebo patients ((149+17) * 24.2% = 40).

Apologies if I am totally missing the boat here. Math and stats are not my strongest subjects.

But when you consider there were 108 patients that hadn’t even lived to 36 months (and they all won’t… but some will), those 44 patients that had lived to 36 months and beyond were really from a patient population of 223.

[Kam8]

excellent post

[snoopycomic]

Great post. Good read for retail Longs who may be getting frustrated with management. Good luck to us retail Longs who are still holding on.

[john1045]

Great post Senti and so well said!

Message in reply to:

If you are looking for evidence that DCVax-L is efficacious, please consider these 10 points.

The interim data dates back to March 2017.

By that time, 159 patients, whether they were alive or dead, had not reached 36 months in the trial. Those patients that enrolled in June 2014 who were still alive were the last patients that could have reached 36 months in the trial.

Date - number of patients enrolled: reached month 33 from enrollment - 36 months from surgery

Nov 15 - 9: Aug 18
Oct 15 - 10: July 18
Sep 15 - 11: June - 18
Aug 15 - 11: May 18
Jul 15 - 10: Apr 18
Jun 15 - 10: Mar 18
May 15 - 10: Feb 18
Apr 15 - 10: Jan 18
Mar 15 - 10 Dec 17
Feb 15 - 10: Nov 17
Jan 15 - 10: Oct 17
Dec 14 - 9: Sept 17
Nov 14 - 9: Aug 17
Oct 14 - 8: July 17
Sep 14 - 7: June 17
Aug 14 - 8: May 17
Jul 14 - 7: Apr 17

159 patients

Please consider that.

Point #1
159 patients had not reached 36 months.

And in March 2017, there were still 108 alive patients in the trial.

So from 331 total patients, there were 108 patients that still could have the potential to reach 36 months in the trial.

Therefore, out of 223 patients (331 - 108), 44 patients that had reached 36 months and beyond, and were actually demonstrating a REMARKABLE KM mOS of 88.32 months.

So when you include ALL the patients in the trial, 13% had already demonstrated a life expectancy of 88 months, or 7.35 years from surgery.

Point #2 (super big point)
But when you consider there were 108 patients that hadn’t even lived to 36 months (and they all won’t… but some will), those 44 patients that had lived to 36 months and beyond were really from a patient population of 223. When you look at the percentage of patients in the DCVax-L trial living to 36 months, from those patients that had even been in the trial that long, it was really 44/223 or 19.7, or 20%.

So… take DCVax and thus far, the data really shows that your chances of living to 7.35 years is 20%.

Optune’s trial can currently only show a 13% life expectancy at 5 years.
And DOES NOT EVEN INCLUDE their control patients.

The number of DCVax patients surviving to 2 years INCLUDING CONTROL was 46.2% or 153 patients in March 2017. But according to the numbers above, 30 patients (those dating back to enrollment in the trial in October 2014), or 9%, in the DCVax-L trial HAD NOT EVEN REACHED 2 years as of March 2017. With 30 patients more with the chance to reach 2 years, and current data showing that 46.2% had reached 2 years, an additional 14 patients would likely as well. If that happens, it will mean that the odds of reaching 2 years of life are 50% (153 + 14 = 167/331 = 50%)

Point #3
And as of March 2017, the DCVax-L combined treatment and control data is already beating Optune’s microwave-for-the-head data.

I don’t see how anyone can argue that the DCVax interim March 2017 data beats Optune’s current data hands down.

Point #4
DCVax-L is ALREADY at 13% for 7 years vs. Optune’s 15% for 5 years.

https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-018-1507-6

Point #5
Consider please, that NVCR’s price is currently $36.50 with a market cap of $3.3 billion.
They have about 90.41 million shares.

If you were to estimate that there were approx. 1 billion NWBO shares FULLY DILUTED (I don’t know, maybe it’s 900 million, maybe it’s 1.1 billion), the market, IMO, should be estimating NWBO’s share price minimally at $3 per share RIGHT NOW. The FDA will have a really hard time not approving DCVax-L with Optune’s current approval on lesser results (and with treatment at higher prices to patients).

Point #6
And I think that’s low too - because it’s likely that with DCVax-L approval, more patients will use the treatment than are already using the scalp-burning Optune helmet. And L can be used for a great many more indications than simply GBM.

Point #7
Finally, with validation of L, Direct should be right away afforded some modicum of efficacy as well.

Point #8
Now I’ll bet there are really savvy analysts out there that recognize this. If they don’t, they must be really bad ones like Less is More’s. So, IMO, for the NWBO current share price to be $.21 instead of $2 or $3 smacks of some sort of tremendous manipulation.

And I hope you see how difficult it will be not to approve DCVax with it demonstrating that kind of data - especially when they are throwing in the control patients to the mix as well. Imagine what the treatment patient data has got to be looking like on its own.

Point #9
And the fact that NICE is doing this early look at DCVax-L to determine what they will recommend paying if it’s approved indicates that their people are anticipating it will be approved. And if you think this isn’t early, it is. There are very few treatments that get put on the NICE calendar that aren’t already approved, or about to be approved.

My guess is that the bears (shorts) are interested in keeping the price down as much as possible for a reason, or series of reasons, and none of them are good.

You can moan and wring your hands and think that it must be because the bears see something bad that you don’t, or scream on twitter and here that it’s all management fault; but you may also want to consider that the savvy bears see something that you are missing, and that is that it is efficacious and that they want a big piece of it.

Point #10
So be sure to keep your stop losses in place, blame stalwart longs and management, and sell, sell, sell, and there are bears here that will be sure to take it all right from under you.

[scotty3371]

Good points

re #2

Temozolomide alone was was 5% 5 yr survival
Optune device was 13% 5 yr survival

YOU ARE RIGHT THEY SHOULD ONLY BE 8%. FDA approval for devices is laughable.

[Kam8]

Good post, but the valuation must be higher than NVCR. Nwbo has dcvax direct, at least 3.3B x1.5= 4.95B

[iclight]

Evidence of efficacy is unblinding the trial and comparing the treatment arm to the control arm.

[Tadasana]

senti thanks great post glad it got a sticky, well deserved.

[sukus]

Senti,

You wrote:
“My guess is that the bears (shorts) are interested in keeping the price down as much as possible for a reason, or series of reasons, and none of them are good. “

I believe that too 100%.