NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[sharpie510]

Senti, I don't think the 108 alive are all from the last 159 patients (the ones that had not reached 36 months in the trial as of March 2017). Where in the blended publication did it state that? There must be quite a number of still alive long term survivors from the group enrolled before July 2014. In fact, the publication stated that 182 ITT patients had a surgery date ≥ 36 months at time of data collection, so the last group should only be 149 patients that hadn't yet made it to 36 months from surgery.

It's true that 44 of 331 or 13.3% have lived ≥ 36 months prior to the data collection, but this figure does not factor in the 149 that weren't yet at 36 months and some will likely make it into this subgroup. The publication makes that clear since it states "Among the ITT patients with a surgery date ≥ 36 months prior to the data collection (n = 182), 24.2% (n = 44) have lived ≥ 36 months and their KM-derived mOS estimate is 88.2 months."

So, if the last 149 perform like the prior 182, then would it be accurate to state that 24.2% of the 149 will be expected to live ≥ 36 months? If so, then that would add another 36 patients into that group (149 * 24.2% = 36). This means one might expect to see 80 of 331 patients living ≥ 36 months. That number might be even higher by as many as 4 more, 84 of 331 if it is true the last group was more heavily control vs. placebo. Rough estimate to factor the 17 "missing" placebo patients ((149+17) * 24.2% = 40).

Apologies if I am totally missing the boat here. Math and stats are not my strongest subjects.

But when you consider there were 108 patients that hadn’t even lived to 36 months (and they all won’t… but some will), those 44 patients that had lived to 36 months and beyond were really from a patient population of 223.