Replies to post #183230 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[sharpie510]

That number might be even higher by as many as 4 more, 84 of 331 if it is true the last group was more heavily control vs. placebo.

Sorry, that should have been treatment vs. placebo.

[sentiment_stocks]

I don't think the 108 alive are all from the last 159 patients

I don't either. I was indicating that if all 159 patients came from the last 159, they would have begin entering the trial in July 2014.

In fact, the publication stated that 182 ITT patients had a surgery date ≥ 36 months at time of data collection, so the last group should only be 149 patients that hadn't yet made it to 36 months from surgery.

Okay... I was going off of an enrollment chart I keep that abeta made up last year after Dr. B posted the enrollment chart. But if the paper stated it was 182 over 36 months, that's likely more accurate.

It's true that 44 of 331 or 13.3% have lived ≥ 36 months prior to the data collection

Right.

but this figure does not factor in the 149 that weren't yet at 36 months and some will likely make it into this subgroup.

Right. So instead of 159 that still hadn't made it to 36 months, it had to have been 149 as you state (coming from the paper).

So, if the last 149 perform like the prior 182, then would it be accurate to state that 24.2% of the 149 will be expected to live ≥ 36 months?

Well... the paper did state there were only 108 patients still alive by March 2017. So I don't think we can draw from 149 patients, but rather still only 108.

My numbers eventually took 44 and divided it by 223 (331 - 108) to come up with 20% because out of 223 patients who had died, 108 still remained who's data could change. So I still think we would keep with the 20% number and not the 24.2%.

So I think my Point #2 still is accurate...

Point #2 (super big point)
But when you consider there were 108 patients that hadn’t even lived to 36 months (and they all won’t… but some will), those 44 patients that had lived to 36 months and beyond were really from a patient population of 223. When you look at the percentage of patients in the DCVax-L trial living to 36 months, from those patients that had even been in the trial that long, it was really 44/223 or 19.7, or 20%.

So… take DCVax and thus far, the data really shows that your chances of living to 7.35 years is 20%.

Now... as you point out, if those last 31 patients were all treatment - with no 17 placebo patients, then it's highly likely that 20% number will be even better. But going with what we can see evidenced, it seems logical to think we'd be at 20% living over 3 years. We'll have to see.