Replies to post #146379 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Hey mlsoft, I thought Greenspan was at some "watering hole" in Wyoming Friday, he surely was not the one busy propping MSFT in the last minutes. It is not unusual at all to have some major stocks like INTC and MSFT have a minor run (and it was not a major run) in the last few minutes before a weekend, and even more common before a long weekend. A lot of shorts not wanting to be exposed to a breakout next week, if it happens, and a lot of longs squaring portfolio. Also last day of the month influence (without any fed intervention) could have been partially responsible. If you were the Feds, or even a body of "conspirators" trying to prop the market for a successful Republican campaign next year, would you shoot all your bullets a year before the critical time? No, I think the market is following its own dynamics, those of a bipolar entity, from extreme pessimism last July/October to a level of extreme optimism (which personally, I think we have already reached, but who knows how far optimism can go...). In as secular bear market (which I still think is the long term picture here), consecutive depth of pessimism, are deeper than the prior one, and consecutive heights of optimism, typically should be lower than the prior one as well. Typically, however is not "always" obeyed, and by some measure the current optimism will soon exceed the optimism in February of 2000. Thus your general bearish attitude for the short term may be justified, but no need to invoke the "powers", I think that right now, the "powers" are happy accumulating ammunition for the next time their presence will really be needed.

[valuepump]

I tend to agree. In my head, the volume is another indication. You almost have to go back to the middle of 2000 to see volume this low on the dow jones industrial average. Everyone's afraid to sell, and nobody wants to buy. Every selloff is bought into, but volume remains downright pathetic for what some here think is a new bull market.

Same goes for the nasdaq. The higher volume due to the garbage stocks hitting their highs in july made me think we had topped, but now the volume is just pathetic, and the garbage stocks you would associate with moves in the nasdaq like this, are just not participating. It seems to be the largest stocks moving this market right now, and many seem to be moving in tandem.

Insiders are selling at a fantastic rate, and the economic data, despite the hype of CNBC remains mixed. The numbers are often released strong, and quietly revised weaker the next week or month.

I stand by my prediction that this economy will be coming back down to recession territory and things could be quite serious. Technical analysis be damned. The refi money and tax credit money has had it's effect, dried up, and now what do we have.. government spending to raise up that GDP number?

Always a good time to play the market though.. seems to be dangerous to be short or long any significant period of time right now though.. dipping my fingers into the precious metals, since I don't daytrade, generally buy and hold for days to as much as a month or two on stocks.

VERY bullish on silver, bullish on gold, commodities in general.


"The big winners would be those folks wise enough to own "things" instead of fiat money - real estate, gold, and other long term assets"


My thinking exactly.. whether we see a depression, currency devalution, or downright hyperinflation, I don't intend to be stuck with money in a bank account. I want to buy a house while the dollar is strong, own physical silver as well, then use the weakness in the currency and the strength in silver to pay that house off, one asset purchased at a fixed price with a fixed obligation for payment being paid off by another asset purchased at a fixed price free to move with market conditions... the silver I own should be more then enough to cover costs. (only 22 years old so I don't own a house yet ;) )

[jdaasoc]

look at the last 5 min of todays market. The tab for that few minutes must be incredible......"

I don't have a clue what you are talking about

  
 Stock      3:55C    4:00C 
  
 SNDK       60.44    60.40 
 IRF        41:58    41.59 
 CCMP       61.19    61.20 
 FLML       28.49    28.50 
 MRVL       42.04    41.98 
 MXIM       44.96    44.98 
 INTC       28.58    28.54 
 QLGC       49.06    49.02 
 BRCM       27.31    27.21 
 QCOM       41.22    41.28 
 CSCO       19.15    19.14 
 MSFT       26.53    26.52 
 AMGN       64.94    64.90 
 CSCSK      28.28    28.31 
 XOM        37.70    37.70 
 PFE        29.84    29.83 
 MER        53.75    53.81 
 BP         41.73    41.72 
 C          43.30    43.35 
            
  
 
                            

[SI_Shack]

I can't believe the AG talk has not stopped on this thread. Its mind boggling!

What about the 5 straight months of strong equity mutual fund inflows? Or is that too obvious an explanation for the rally.

Its as if bears have forgotten that markets also go up as well as down.