Replies to post #146394 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[inthehills]

SI_Shack, <5 straight months of strong equity mutual fund inflows>.

Have you checked the net?.

ins - outs.

[TJ Parker]

What about the 5 straight months of strong equity mutual fund inflows? Or is that too obvious an explanation for the rally.

yes, that does not explain the rally. here's the data (from amgdata.com):

July Equity Fund Inflows $17.4 Bil
June Equity Fund Inflows $19.9 Bil
May Equity Fund Inflows at $13.1 Bil

2nd Qtr-Equity Fund Inflows $46.0 Bil (includes may and june above)
1st Qtr-Equity Fund Outflows ($5.9 Bil)

but in comparision, peak quarters for the last two years (from trimtabs.com):

2nd quarter of 2001 was 47900
1st quarter of 2002 was 45779

in brief, fund inflows alone don't account for the magnitude of the rise we've seen.

but then, money alone isn't sufficient. after all, mufu's (mutual fund managers) could sit on cash. its their willingness to chase stocks at any price that has this effect. and likely, it will last as long as they have money coming in and are chasing performance. lets see what happens if we have a month of negative flows.

[market_watcher]

It's like there are two threads. One of people providing useful(to me)fundamental and technical information and another with all the incessant AG stuff.

The worst thing, again, to me, about the AG stuff is that there's no consistency to the predictive value it supposedly has. It's always after the fact rationalizing, never before the fact prognostication. If someone posts a chart with a good pattern that plays out, I can actually use that to make some money. If someone posts AG repo'd $5 billion, there's no consistent market action that results. And, yes, I've seen the chart that trys to correlate repos and market moves, but I think there are other market-timing systems that work better. If someone posts after the market is up 50 points that it must be because AG is buying, big deal. Tell me before he starts buying. I can't believe that the people who post the AG info don't realize these things by now. If they really think it is so pertinent to the markets to know what Greenspan is allegedly up to, show us the trading results. Otherwise, it's just noise.

[mlsoft]

SI_Shack...

I do not argue that markets go up as well as down -- if you have read some of my older posts, it is not what the market is doing so much as how it is doing it. I have been trading the markets for a long time and as an old tape trader the trading patterns I have been seeing in this rally are very abnormal and like nothing I have seen before. The Greenspan Gambit explanation is the only one that fits what Greenspan (and Bernanke) have said, is totally logical from an economic point of view, explains the abnormal trading patterns, and has been accurately predictive of what the market was going to do.

That has been good enough for me, so I will stick with it without apologies.

mlsoft

[lee kramer]

SI Shack: <"I can't believe the AG talk has not stopped on this thread. It's mind boggling."> Ain't it the truth.