Replies to post #146384 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[zerofinance]

Zeev, about "measures of optimism", the "cocktail party optimism index" is still well below 1999/2000 highs in my own experience <gg>.

For the last 2 years (2001-02) if I even brought up the topic of stocks, folks would change the subject right away. Now, they are willing to discuss things, but still hesitancy is the norm...

zerofinance

[mlsoft]

"If you were the Feds, or even a body of "conspirators" trying to prop the market for a successful Republican campaign next year, would you shoot all your bullets a year before the critical time?"
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Zeev...

I have said many times that this rally and the Greenspan Gambit that underlies it has absolutely nothing to do with politics, including the 2004 elections. It has everything to do with salvaging the US (and global) economy if at all possible.

As for "shooting all your bullets", light volume markets with no underlying direction are both easy and relatively inexpensive for AG to control. The real test will come when the volume picks up.

mlsoft

[lee kramer]

Zeev: Stop making sense. Sure Mr. Greeenspan was in Wyoming on Friday. But do you think this would prevent him from propping the market later in the day? Don't be ridicilous [sic]. He's got his wife, three nephews, two cats, four dogs and a partridge in a pear tree [all computer trained] to enter the needed orders to prop the market whenever he's outta town or stuck in the loo.

[federal reserves]

Greenspan gave a speech on uncertainity

and monetary policy in Jackson Hole.

IMHO, very few folks, realize how close we are to a chaotic
implosion of the financial system, which is built on the
ability of the global financial intermediaters to expand
debt at an ever growing and increasing pace. There is weakness in the system, for it is taking larger and larger amounts of debt, to move up the GDP a given percent. Is the debt rocket and credit expansion reaching its apex? Have we finally spent ourselves out? Time will tale.

[michalel97123]

Oil and gas stocks, any opinions?

[mike_m]

Zeev, how do you see a serious market drop on the horizon with M3 exploding, a normal yield curve and next year's election on the horizon...? While I can't argue with a seasonal strain in September and (maybe)October, the market continues to demonstrate good breadth and reasonable leadership...(without expanding new lows)....

I'm having trouble envisioning the conditions for the kind of severe correction you are calling for any time soon....

Respectfully,

Mike