The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

CLF Reports Blowout 1Q11 Results

[When the price of iron ore is high, CLF makes a lot of money, and that’s what’s happening now, causing 1Q11 to be the most profitable quarter ever. Moreover, 1Q11 results benefited from the previously announced settlement with ArcelorMital, CLF’s largest customer (#msg-61890350).

CLF does not give EPS guidance, but it does give detailed guidance for production volume and pricing in the current year. For iron ore, CLF raised its 2011 volume guidance slightly and maintained its pricing guidance. For coal, CLF pulled its guidance due to the tornado damage at its Alabama mine. This and the fact that CLF did not raise its 2011 pricing guidance for iron are responsible for the 2% selloff today. Still, 2011 EPS of $10+ is very likely, and some analysts have forecasts substantially higher. Unless you think the iron and coal markets are likely to implode in the next few years, CLF has to be a screaming buy based on valuation alone.

CLF has been transitioning the pricing of its North American and Asia Pacific ores to rates based on global spot prices, which strengthens the tie-in with The Global Demographic Tailwind. This transition should be complete by the end of 2011. All of my comments in the prologue of #msg-60141717—including those on the connection between the Consolidated Thompson merger and The Global Demographic Tailwind—continue to apply, so I won’t repeat them here. An equity raise in 2011 will be needed to pay for the Consolidated Thompson deal.]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cliffs-Natural-Resources-Inc-prnews-3703819563.html?x=0&.v=1

›Thursday April 28, 2011, 6:01 pm

- Revenue Increases 63% over Last Year to a First-Quarter Record of $1.2 Billion; Net Income Reaches $423 Million, or $3.11 Per Diluted Share

- Company Increases 2011 Sales Volume Outlook for North American Iron Ore to 29 Million Tons

CLEVELAND, April 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF) (Paris:CLF.pa) today reported first-quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2011. Consolidated revenues in the seasonally slow first quarter were up 63% to a record $1.2 billion, from $728 million in the same quarter last year. Operating income for the first quarter was $541 million, an increase of 377% from the comparable quarter in 2010. First-quarter 2011 net income was $423 million, or $3.11 per diluted share, up from $77 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2010. The increase was driven by several factors, including higher pricing in each of Cliffs' business segments and the favorable effect of Cliffs' previously disclosed negotiated settlement with ArcelorMittal USA Inc. In addition, Cliffs is increasing its North American Iron Ore sales volume outlook to 29 million tons based on increased demand for iron ore in North America and globally.

Joseph A. Carrabba, Cliffs' chairman, president and chief executive officer, said, "During the quarter, we achieved another significant milestone in our long-term strategy for growth and diversification. Our pending strategic acquisition of Consolidated Thompson will further our position among the top 10 largest iron ore producers in the world. Today, with our increasing exposure to seaborne markets, we are well positioned to serve a diverse set of end markets."

During the quarter, Cliffs announced its intention to acquire Consolidated Thompson, an emerging world-class iron ore producer located in Eastern Canada. This pending transaction reflects Cliffs' strategy to build scale by owning expandable and exportable steelmaking raw material assets serving the world's emerging economies. Along with adding Consolidated Thompson's operations and development projects to Cliffs' global portfolio of assets, the acquisition will also provide Cliffs the opportunity to build and grow strong business relationships with Consolidated Thompson's current customers. These new customers will enable Cliffs to continue to strategically diversify the Company's customer base beyond its historical North American steelmaking customers.

North American Iron Ore



Historically, because of shipping constraints on the Great Lakes, Cliffs' North American Iron Ore business is seasonally slower in the first quarter compared with other periods. First-quarter 2011 North American Iron Ore pellet sales volume was 3.5 million tons, a 19% decrease from the 4.4 million tons sold in the year-ago quarter. Cliffs indicated that first-quarter 2010 sales included approximately 800,000 carryover tons from the fourth quarter of 2009, driving the quarter-over-quarter variance.

North American Iron Ore first-quarter 2011 revenues per ton were $168.31, up 77% from $94.97 in the prior year's comparable quarter. Per-ton revenues in first-quarter 2011 were positively impacted primarily due to the negotiated settlement with ArcelorMittal and an increase in seaborne iron ore prices. The settlement resulted in Cliffs recognizing approximately $140 million in additional revenue during first-quarter 2011. Also, the Company indicated first-quarter 2011 sales volumes included a mix of pricing levels, including seaborne rates for shipments out of Eastern Canada and formula-based pricing to customers in the Great Lakes using a provisional pricing factor of a 35% increase in the seaborne iron ore prices.

Cost per ton in North American Iron Ore was $56.63, down 19% from $69.80 in the year-ago quarter. The decrease was driven primarily by the negotiated settlement with ArcelorMittal. The settlement resulted in Cliffs reducing cost of goods sold by $54 million during the first quarter. The reduction was driven by a cost-sharing reimbursement for Empire Mine, where ArcelorMittal is a minority partner. Partially offsetting the quarter-over-quarter decrease in cost per ton were increased costs related to labor, higher supplies and maintenance spend and higher energy costs for electricity and diesel fuel.

As noted above, subsequent to quarter end Cliffs reached a negotiated settlement with ArcelorMittal with respect to the companies' previously disclosed arbitrations and litigation regarding, among other matters, price reopener entitlements for 2009 and 2010 and pellet nominations for 2010 and 2011. In total, the negotiated settlement with ArcelorMittal had a $194 million favorable impact to Cliffs' North American Iron Ore sales margin during the first quarter of 2011. The balance of the settlement will be recognized later in the year as the remaining tons are shipped. Cliffs has collected cash of approximately $275 million in the second quarter of 2011 related to this settlement.

In addition, as part of the settlement, Cliffs and ArcelorMittal have agreed to replace the previous pricing mechanism with a quarterly world market-based pricing mechanism beginning in 2011 and through the remainder of the contract for one of the iron ore supply agreements that Cliffs has with ArcelorMittal. As a result of the new pricing feature, going forward, both parties also agreed to forgo future price reopeners.

North American Coal



For the first quarter of 2011, North American Coal sales nearly doubled to 1.3 million tons from the 662,000 tons sold in the prior year's comparable quarter. The increase was primarily driven by 621,000 tons of incremental sales volume from the West Virginia coal operations of INR Energy, which Cliffs acquired in mid-2010. Partially offsetting the increase was a scheduled longwall machine move during the first quarter in 2011 that resulted in production downtime and slightly lower sales volumes from Cliffs' Pinnacle Mine in West Virginia from the comparable quarter in 2010.

Revenue per ton increased 19% to $123.83 compared with the first quarter of 2010. Cliffs indicated the revenue rate includes a product mix of thermal coal, high-volatile metallurgical coal and low-volatile metallurgical coal. First-quarter sales volumes also included a mix of pricing levels among customers, with a portion priced at 2011 market prices and a portion, primarily for international customers, at 2010 pricing. Cliffs noted its annual supply agreements with international customers typically have contract years ending March 31.

Cost per ton increased 5% to $126.14, from $120.39 in the comparable quarter last year. The higher cost per ton is partially attributed to the longwall machine move discussed above. Cliffs indicated this resulted in approximately $3 per ton of additional costs during the first quarter of 2011. Also, in anticipation of the planned ramp-up in production volume, headcount increased at Cliffs' Pinnacle and Oak Grove mines, which contributed to the higher quarter-over-quarter costs.

Asia Pacific Iron Ore



First-quarter 2011 Asia Pacific Iron Ore sales volume was virtually flat at 2.2 million tons, compared with 2.1 million tons in the 2010 first quarter.

Revenue per ton for first-quarter 2011 increased 67% to $155.52, from $93.16 in last year's first quarter. The increase was driven by stronger year-over-year seaborne pricing for iron ore and 2011 pricing mechanisms that are more reflective of spot-market prices. During the first quarter of 2010, the industry was in the midst of a transition from what was historically an annual international benchmark pricing system for seaborne iron ore products. As a result, Cliffs utilized certain quarterly pricing mechanisms adopted by major Australian producers during the first quarter of 2010. Since then, Cliffs has moved a majority of its customers in the Asia Pacific Iron Ore business segment to pricing mechanisms more closely correlated with spot prices.

Per-ton cost of goods sold in Asia Pacific Iron Ore increased 20% to $67.36 in first-quarter 2011 from $56.13 in last year's comparable quarter. The increase was primarily due to increased royalties expense, higher pre-stripping costs in advance and preparation for future expansion and unfavorable foreign exchange rates from the year-ago quarter.

Sonoma Coal and Amapa

In the first quarter of 2011, Cliffs' share of sales volume for its 45% economic interest in Sonoma Coal was 252,000 tons. The decrease in sales volume when compared to prior quarters is attributed to exceptionally wet weather from tropical cyclones experienced during the first quarter of 2011. Revenues and sales margin generated for Cliffs were $35.3 million and $11 million, respectively. Revenue per ton at Sonoma was $140.10 with costs of $96.47 per ton.

Cliffs has a 30% ownership interest in Amapa, an iron ore operation in Brazil. During the first quarter, Amapa produced approximately 1.1 million tons and earned equity income of $2.6 million for Cliffs' share of the operation.

Capital Structure, Cash Flow and Liquidity

To finance a portion of its pending acquisition of Consolidated Thompson, Cliffs entered into a $1.25 billion term loan and a bridge credit facility that currently provides for up to $960 million in bridge financing during the quarter. Due to the pending close of the Consolidated Thompson acquisition, Cliffs did not borrow under either of these agreements during the first-quarter of 2011. As a result, there were no amounts outstanding from either agreement at March 31, 2011.

Also during the quarter and as previously disclosed, Cliffs priced two tranches of 10-year and 30-year public senior notes totaling $1 billion in aggregate principal amount. The $700 million, 10-year tranche closed prior to quarter end and is reflected on the balance sheet as of March 31, 2011, with the $300 million 30-year tranche closing subsequent to the end of the first quarter. Cliffs intends to use the net proceeds from both tranches to finance a portion of its pending acquisition of Consolidated Thompson.

At quarter-end, Cliffs had $2.3 billion of cash and cash equivalents, $2.4 billion in long-term debt and no borrowings drawn on its $600 million revolving credit facility.

For the quarter, Cliffs reported depreciation, depletion and amortization of $79.8 million and generated $107 million in cash from operations.

Outlook

Cliffs expects the demand for its products will remain strong through 2011. Rising global blast furnaces utilization rates support a favorable outlook for another year of increased global steel production, led by China. As a result, the demand for steelmaking raw materials continues to increase. With Cliffs' production capacity expansion in Asia Pacific and increased seaborne iron ore exposure from the Company's assets in North America, the Company believes it is poised to generate a significant amount of cash for shareholders beyond 2011.

During the first quarter, Cliffs announced it had entered into a definitive arrangement agreement with Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Limited. This transaction is expected to close in early second quarter of 2011, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various closing conditions. After closing this transaction, Cliffs anticipates including this business in subsequent market outlooks.

North American Iron Ore Outlook (Long tons)

For 2011, the Company is increasing its sales volume expectations to approximately 29 million tons in North American Iron Ore, from a previous expectation of 28 million tons.

The Company is maintaining its North American Iron Ore revenue-per-ton expectation of $140 - $145 based on the following assumptions:

• 2011 U.S. blast furnace utilization of approximately 75%;
• 2011 average hot rolled steel pricing of $700 - $750; and
• An average increase of 35% over 2010's pricing for seaborne iron ore.

The revenue-per-ton expectation also considers various contract provisions, lag-year adjustments and pricing caps and floors contained in certain supply agreements. Actual realized revenue per ton for the full year will depend on price changes for blast furnace pellets from 2010 seaborne prices, customer mix, production input costs and/or steel prices (all factors in the Company's formula-based pricing in the North American Iron Ore business segment).

In addition, the following approximate sensitivities would impact actual realized prices:

• For every 10% change from the above expectation for annual blast furnace pellet prices, Cliffs expects its average realized revenue per ton in North American Iron Ore to change by approximately $5; and

• For every $25 change from the estimated 2011 hot rolled steel prices noted above, Cliffs expects its average revenue per ton in North American Iron Ore to change by $0.43.

Cliffs expects its North American Iron Ore 2011 production volume to be approximately 27 million tons and cost per ton of $65 - $70, with approximately $5 per ton comprised of depreciation, depletion and amortization.

North American Coal Outlook (Short tons, F.O.B. the mine)

Earlier today Cliffs reported that during the evening of April 27, 2011 its above ground operations at its Oak Grove Mine in Alabama were struck by severe weather, including a tornado. All mine operations employees are accounted for and safe with no known injuries at this point in time. Cliffs indicated that it does appear that the severe weather did significant damage to the mine’s preparation plant and overland conveyor system and this, along with overall infrastructure damage in Alabama, will impact future customer deliveries. Cliffs cautioned that it is extremely early in the damage assessment process being conducted by its operations team, and therefore, difficult to accurately forecast potential business impact.

Prior to this event, Cliffs expected 2011 North American Coal sales and production volumes of approximately 6.5 million tons, comprised of 1 million tons of thermal coal, 1.5 million tons of high-volatile metallurgical coal and 4 million tons of low-volatile metallurgical coal.

With the natural disaster at Oak Grove and the difficulty in immediately assessing impact, the Company is not providing updated sales volume, production volume, revenue per ton or cost per ton outlook at this time. Cliffs will continue with its assessment and further information will be communicated as appropriate and available.

Asia Pacific Iron Ore Outlook (Metric tons, F.O.B. the port)

The Company is maintaining its 2011 Asia Pacific Iron Ore sales and production volumes expectation of 9 million tons. Cliffs' 2011 Asia Pacific Iron Ore revenue-per-ton outlook is $165 - $170, assuming the following:

• The Platts spot price of $181 per ton (C.I.F. China) as of April 15, 2011, is maintained for the remainder of 2011; and
• A product mix of approximately 50% lump and 50% fines.

Full-year 2011 Asia Pacific Iron Ore costs per ton are expected to be approximately $70 - $75, with approximately $11 per ton comprised of depreciation, depletion and amortization costs.

The following table provides a summary of Cliffs' 2011 guidance for its three business segments:



Outlook for Sonoma Coal and Amapa (Metric tons, F.O.B. the port)

Cliffs has a 45% economic interest in Sonoma Coal. For 2011, the Company is decreasing Sonoma Coal's equity sales and production volumes expectation to 1.2 million tons from the prior expectation of 1.6 million tons. The decrease is primarily driven by the exceptionally wet weather. The approximate product mix is expected to be two thirds thermal coal and one third metallurgical coal. Cliffs expects per-ton costs to be $110 - $115, up from its previous expectation of $105 - $110.

Cliffs expects Amapa to be modestly profitable in 2011.

SG&A Expenses and Other Expectations

For 2011, Cliffs is maintaining its SG&A expenses expectation of approximately $200 million. In addition, the Company expects to incur the following additional cash outflows:

• Approximately $50 million to $55 million related to its global exploration activities;
• Approximately $40 million related to its chromite project in Ontario, Canada; and
• Approximately $10 million related to Sonoma Coal partner profit sharing, down from a previous estimate of $50 million due to lower anticipated sales volumes.

The Company anticipates a full-year tax rate of approximately 27% for 2011. Depreciation, depletion and amortization are expected to be approximately $360 million.

2011 Capital Budget Update and Other Uses of Cash

For 2011, based on the above outlook Cliffs would generate an anticipated $2.6 billion in cash from operations.

Cliffs is maintaining its 2011 capital expenditures budget of approximately $700 million, comprised of approximately $300 million in sustaining capital and approximately $400 million in growth and expansion.

Cliffs will host a conference call to discuss its first-quarter 2011 results tomorrow, April 29, 2011, at 10 a.m. ET. The call will be broadcast live and archived on Cliffs' website: www.cliffsnaturalresources.com.‹