Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

IDIX ReadMeFirst

[Updates:
“HCV: Most Likely to Succeed”;
NVS’ small “true up” purchase;
table of recent biotech buyouts.]


What is IDIX’s business all about?
Business description from latest 10K filing
#msg-33722651 Link to 11/20/08 Needham webcast
#msg-31943984 IDIX’s drug portfolio
#msg-33247964 Link to 3Q08 conference call
#msg-29979703 Tidbits from Jun08 Needham webcast
#msg-26915744 Addressable markets for antiviral drugs


Valuation and finances
#msg-33234317 3Q08 financial results
#msg-33238759 Sufficient cash for 5 quarters
#msg-33787756 Table of recent biotech buyouts


News flow
#msg-32683478 2008-2009 clinical goals


Officers, directors, and major shareholders
#msg-28869752 Composition of Board of Directors
Capsule résumés of executive officers (click on a name)
#msg-33807169 Largest shareholders
#msg-33807081 Latest NVS “true up” purchase
#msg-33625817 NVS’ cost basis
#msg-29157548 Standstill agreement with NVS has expired
#msg-32238068 Current insider shareholdings
#msg-32238060 Recent insider transactions


HIV program: Economic rationale
#msg-28959639 Musings on size of an HIV partnership
#msg-33411254 GILD appears to be the main option
#msg-29985807 When and how NVS may get involved
#msg-26915744 HIV addressable market
#msg-31175781 HIV incidence is higher than previously thought
#msg-26915314 IDX899 seeks to supersede Sustiva
#msg-27344078 Economics of the first-line setting
#msg-30944437 Sustiva sells more than $1.1B/yr
#msg-32944110 HIV market size/share (from GILD CC)
#msg-31419107 Increased HIV screening will expand market
#msg-33124429 New guidelines to recommend earlier treatment


HIV program: Clinical rationale
#msg-31935103 2008-2009 clinical goals
#msg-29959114 7-day monotherapy data (200-800mg)
#msg-31925486 7-day monotherapy data (100mg)
#msg-31944395 7-day monotherapy data (viral-load chart)
#msg-24329960 IDX899 has no cross-resistance to Sustiva
#msg-29985830 Design of a late-stage HIV trial


HIV program: Competition
#msg-32355170 HIV market overview (detailed)
#msg-24673329 HIV market overview (for dummies)
#msg-26643515 Intelence 48w data in NNRTI-refractory HIV
#msg-30789106 TMC278 enters phase-3
#msg-31354706 TMC278 phase-2b data
#msg-33138650 RDEA806 advances to phase-2b
#msg-26610262 Pfizer’s UK 453,061
#msg-23282517 Miscellaneous early-stage NNRTI’s
#msg-33123339 Isentress bests Sustiva in 1st-line setting


HCV program
#msg-31935103 2008-2009 clinical goals
#msg-26915921 Why IDX184 is better than NM283
#msg-31043481 IDX184 begins phase-1
#msg-28715477 IDX184 preclinical data from EASL
#msg-31043481 Introducing IDX136, IDX316, and IDX375
#msg-26915744 HCV addressable market
#msg-29018192 Factoids re US patient pool
#msg-30190435 Devastating risk of undertreating HCV
#msg-33808317 Competitive landscape for new agents
#msg-29196186 Musings on future combination therapy


HBV program
#msg-32683976 Estimated royalty income from NVS
#msg-23785846 Status of Sebivo launch in EU
#msg-23434932 Treating asymptomatic e- patients will boost market
#msg-11099728 US Asian immigrants largely untreated
#msg-32945811 Viread alters competitive landscape (1)
#msg-33257652 Viread alters competitive landscape (2)


Reference links
http://www.idenix.com/hiv/about
http://www.aidsmeds.com/list.shtml
http://www.idenix.com/hepc/about
http://www.hcvdrugs.com/
http://www.hivandhepatitis.com
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/diseases/hepatitis/b/fact.htm
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs204/en
http://www.idenix.com/about/media/Glossary_of_terms.pdf