Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>What impact will [Viread] have on Tyzeka sales and IDIX?<

Hepsera’s being supplanted by Viread is a slight negative for Tyzeka, IMO. There are two factors to consider.

First, the portion of Viread’s market share that comes at the expense of Hepsera is neutral for Tyzeka; however, in due course, Viread will presumably capture a larger market share than Hepsera had at its peak for the simple reason that Viread is a better drug.

Second, Viread will almost certainly expand the overall number of treated patients, which benefits all of the drugs in the market insofar as the HBV drugs other than Viread become candidates for second-line use either with Viread or as a standalone.

These two factors have opposite effects vis-à-vis Tyzeka sales, but I judge the first factor to be slightly stronger.



<font size=3><font color=red> “The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”