Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

IDIX ReadMeFirst

[Updates:
2008-2009 clinical goals;
100mg monotherapy data for IDX899;
revised chart of IDX899 viral load by dose;
revised chart of HIV/HCV drug portfolio;
revised holdings of major shareholders;
revised table of recent biotech buyouts;
revised post on HCV competitive landscape.]


What is IDIX’s business all about?
Business description from latest 10K filing
#msg-31943984 IDIX’s drug portfolio
#msg-31059565 Transcript of 2Q08 conference call
#msg-26915744 Addressable markets for antiviral drugs
#msg-25899731 What’s not to like?
#msg-29979703 Tidbits from Needham webcast (6/12/08)


Valuation and finances
#msg-31043547 2Q08 financial results
#msg-25870940 IDIX vs VRUS (based on Jan08 valuations)
#msg-31868085 Recent biotech buyouts with a large premium


News flow
#msg-31935103 2008-2009 clinical goals


Officers, directors, and major shareholders
#msg-28869752 Composition of Board of Directors
Capsule résumés of executive officers (click on a name)
#msg-31923658 Largest shareholders
#msg-31915371 Latest NVS “true up”
#msg-29157548 Standstill agreement with NVS has expired
#msg-27682782 Insider Transactions During Past 24 Months
#msg-29876308 Current insider shareholdings


HIV program: Economic rationale
#msg-28959639 Musings on size of an HIV partnership
#msg-29985807 When and how NVS may get involved
#msg-26915744 HIV addressable market
#msg-31175781 HIV incidence is higher than previously thought
#msg-26220473 HIV market in Europe’s Big-5 countries
#msg-26915314 IDX899 seeks to supersede Sustiva
#msg-27344078 Economics of the first-line setting
#msg-30944437 Sustiva sells more than $1.1B/yr
#msg-30787392 Market size and share info from GILD CC
#msg-31419107 Increased HIV screening will expand market


HIV program: Clinical rationale
#msg-31935103 2008-2009 clinical goals
#msg-29959114 7-day monotherapy data (200-800mg)
#msg-31925486 7-day monotherapy data (100mg)
#msg-31944395 7-day monotherapy data (viral-load chart)
#msg-24329960 IDX899 has no cross-resistance to Sustiva
#msg-29985830 Design of a late-stage HIV trial


HIV program: Competition
#msg-24673329 HIV competitive landscape
#msg-28555106 Colossal importance of qD dosing
#msg-26126733 FDA approves Intelence (TMC125)
#msg-26643515 Intelence 48w data in NNRTI-refractory HIV
#msg-30789106 TMC278 enters phase-3
#msg-31354706 TMC278 phase-2b data
#msg-26610262 Pfizer’s UK 453,061
#msg-30255144 Ardea’s RDEA806
#msg-23282517 Miscellaneous early-stage NNRTI’s
#msg-31357056 Isentress seeks traction in 1st-line setting


HCV program
#msg-31935103 2008-2009 clinical goals
#msg-26915921 Why IDX184 is better than NM283
#msg-31043481 IDX184 begins phase-1
#msg-28715477 IDX184 preclinical data from EASL
#msg-31043481 Introducing IDX136, IDX316, and IDX375
#msg-26915744 HCV addressable market
#msg-29018192 Factoids re US patient pool
#msg-30190435 Devastating risk of undertreating HCV
#msg-31579654 Competitive landscape for new agents
#msg-29196186 Musings on future combination therapy


HBV program (Novartis)
#msg-23242360 Restructuring of Tyzeka relationship with NVS
#msg-24405569 Twelve different royalty tiers
#msg-23249593 Conjecture on the royalty rates
#msg-26915744 HBV addressable market
#msg-23785846 Status of European launch
#msg-23434932 Treating asymptomatic e- patients will boost market
#msg-11099728 Asian immigrants are largely untreated
#msg-21358606 Why a slow sales ramp for new HBV drugs?
#msg-30936953 Baraclude sales ramp 2005-present
#msg-31384686 Viread approved; GILD to cease promotion of Hepsera
#msg-23309283 Clevudine phase-3 program
#msg-28925042 Musings on sustained virologic response (SVR)


Reference links
http://www.idenix.com/hiv/about
http://www.aidsmeds.com/list.shtml
http://www.idenix.com/hepc/about
http://www.hcvdrugs.com/
http://www.hivandhepatitis.com
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/diseases/hepatitis/b/fact.htm
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs204/en
http://www.idenix.com/about/media/Glossary_of_terms.pdf


<font size=2><font color=red>“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”