In a monotherapy trial lasting 14 days, VRUS’ HCV drug, R7128, produced a mean reduction in viral load of 2.7 logs at the highest dose tested, which was 1500mg BID (#msg-25785397, scan to bottom of PR for monotherapy results).
In a monotherapy trial lasting only four days, IDIX’s HCV drug, IDX184, produced a reduction in viral load of 2.7-4.0 logs at a once-daily dose of 10mg/kg (#msg-25836250).
Alas, the IDX184 trial was only in animals. Nevertheless, based on early data it does not seem unreasonable to think that IDX184 may be as good a drug as R7128—if not better.
What about the two companies’ products for HBV? Well, IDIX is already receiving royalties from NVS on commercial sales of Tyzeka/Sebivo while VRUS’ HBV drug, Clevudine, is still in phase-3.
What about HIV? IDIX has an HIV drug in phase-2 called IDX899. VRUS probably has something going on in HIV, but I forget what.
Now look at the fully-diluted market caps of the two stocks: VRUS is approximately $600M while IDIX is <$200M, of which about $100M is cash on hand.
Which stock is the better biotech value at current prices?
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”