NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

Sharing some thoughts, all IMHO.

NWBO key events and valuation milestones
- 2014-2015: Institutional investment (peaking with July 2015 $40M Woodford investment, total $95M)
- Dec 19, 2016: Delist to OTCQB Venture Market
- 2017: NWBO 5-year’s data collection of alleged Spoofing starts (lawsuit filed 12/1/2022)
- Sep 2020 Flaskworks acquisition (pivot to low-cost automation)
- Oct 5, 2020: DCVax-L Ph 3 Data lock (14 yrs trial then, strong hint of existence of a long tail survival curve)
- Oct 2021: HTA IMP License (Sawston, regulatory readiness, clinical grade manufacturer, included provisions for compassionate use)
- Dec 2021: MHRA GMP License (Sawston, regulatory readiness, clinical grade manufacturer)
- May 2022: NYAS Phase 3 Presentation (Data release, long tail and statistical significance proven, key de-risking event)
- Nov 2022: JAMA Oncology Publication (Top tier peer review of Phase 3 data release)
- Dec 2022: NWBO sues Market Makers for Spoofing (price suppression, 5 years data)
- Dec 2023: DCVax-L MAA filing UK (major catalyst)
- Jun 2024: Roswell Park Exclusive License (expand IP for DCs, plus two Phase 2-ready trials and one Phase 1-ready trials)
- Sep 2024: HTA Human License (readiness for commercial-supply)
- Oct 2025: Acquisition of Advent BioServices (NWBO removes CDMO mark-up, thereby increases its gross margin %)

NWBO approx market cap
- Jul 2015: $1B
- Dec 19, 2016: $0.05B
- 2017: $0.03B
Note: $1B mkt cap with institutional investment, but also the start of a major valuation suppression period (2H 2015 thru 2020). A $900M market cap destruction from market manipulation, short-activity, and short-seller reports. That led to NWBO’s lawsuit in 2022.

- Sep 2020: $0.6B
- Oct 2020: $1.1B
- Oct 2021: $1.4B
- Dec 2021: $0.7B
Note: $1B mkt cap from major positive milestones of Phase 3 data lock and Sawston HTA and GMP regulatory licensing. Although valuations recover due to NWBO achieving major new catalysts, it is within the environment of ongoing market manipulation that keeps high-quality capital away (permanent opportunity costs and loss).

- May 2022: $0.6B
- Nov 2022: $0.3B
- Dec 2022: $1.0B
Note: $1B mkt cap from major positive milestones of data release, JAMA publication, and MHRA MAA filing. Ongoing market manipulation dominates atmosphere, reflecting Shorts likely having a difficult managing their short position. NWBO generates extremely positive news, leads to “diamond hands” investors. Shorts likely unable to cover their mark-to-market short positions, ie “unlimited” liability exposure. IMHO Shorts are forced to double-down, engaging in low-collateral-requirement synthetic short contracts to keep a lid on mkt cap, that is growing with substantial fundamentals and major potential.

- Dec 2023: $0.8B
- Jun 2024: $0.5B
- Sep 2024: $0.3B
- Oct 2025: $0.4B
- Apr 2026: $0.3B
Note: Despite major accomplishments by NWBO, the ongoing mkt cap suppression continues. It seems the “double-down” has turned into a forced “quadruple-down” to maintain.

To highlight why the alleged market manipulation is so extreme, here are examples of “new drug” biotech acquisitions:
• 2017: Kite Pharma, $12B (completed pivotal Phase 2, 101 patient trial. Cancer label eventually: limited to only DLBCL cancer, a subset, initially as a 3rd in line DLBCL therapy)
• 2018: Juno Therapeutics, $9B (mid-stage clinical trial)
• 2018: AveXis, $9B (completed a Phase 1 study of 15 infants)
• 2019: Loxo Oncology, $8B (drug FDA approved 2 mos prior to acquisition)
• 2020: Forty Seven, $5B (mid-stage clinical trial)

Big picture
DCVax-L would be the first new treatment for GBM in 20 years. This is a SOC disruption.

With “imminent” MHRA approval of DCVax-L, this creates a major short squeeze environment upon catalyst. It would be “major” because it has to correct for 2 things: for historical mkt cap suppression and for price discovery of the DCVax platform potential.

The potential is not only to be a personalized, broad-spectrum cancer vaccine but to be the base-layer therapy that cures cancer. As always, all is IMHO.